MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of LT Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 2014

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*PRICE: $1.2413 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2384 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1.2330 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2286 Daily Bull channel base off Jan 10 low 

*SUP 4: $1.2277 Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 3yr highs lacked follow through with the pair rejected ahead

of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs

Friday. Bears now need a close below $1.2384 to pressure $1.2203-1.2286 where

the bull channel base off 2018 lows is found. Bulls now look for a close above

$1.2461 to gain breathing room and above $1.2515 to retain focus on the weekly

bear channel top.

     CABLE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead of 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1.4344 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: $1.4162 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.4031 @ 2330GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3974 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1.3923 High Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3763 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Feb lows so far ($1.3765) sees bulls looking for

a close above $1.4162 to confirm focus on 2018 highs and the key 200-WMA lurking

above. A weekly close above the 200-WMA was last seen in Q4 2014. A close above

would target $1.5019 2016 highs. The $1.3924-74 support region is now key. Bears

need a close below $1.3924 to target $1.3657-1.3765. Daily studies remain well

placed for gains.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y105.50 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14a 

*RES 2: Y106.91 Hourly resistance Feb 15 

*RES 1: Y106.39 High Feb 16

*PRICE: Y106.35 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016 

*SUP 4: Y99.08 2016 Low June 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018/15mth lows defined although the lack of follow through

Friday is less than ideal given failure to take out Y105.50. Bears need a close

below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for a move back to Y99.08-101.15. Bulls

look for a close above Y106.91 to gain breathing room, above Y108.03 to hint at

a correction back to Y110.47 and above Y109.79 to confirm. O/S daily studies and

Bollinger base (Y106.11) remain concerns for bears.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.50 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 3: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 2: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.37 Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.09 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.59 2018 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 3: Y131.06 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.50 Low Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the Y130.50-131.59 support region with a

close below Y130.50 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and hint at a move back to

Y125.80-127.54. O/S daily studies are a concern for bears. Bulls now need a

close above Y132.37 to gain breathing room and above Y133.78 to confirm a break

of the 100-DMA (Y133.63) and hint at a shift higher in focus. Above the 21-DMA

(Y134.52) then targets 2018 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8889 High Feb 16

*PRICE: Gbp0.8847 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8831 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8821 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the key Gbp0.8928 resistance is less than ideal

as daily studies linger at O/B levels and momentum begins to correct. Bulls

still need a close above Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and initially target

Gbp0.9013-48. Layers of support remain in place. Bears look for a close below

the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8685-0.8730.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7867 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 2: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7923 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7889 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7795 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA has been

aggressive although the failure to gain traction on the marginal break of

$0.7985 leaves the pair looking heavy. Bears continue to look for a close below

$0.7867 to shift focus back to $0.7229-68 where the 200-DMA is located. Below

$0.7729 shifts focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls need a close above $0.7989 to

return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 91.004-751 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: 89.429 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: 89.070 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 2: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*SUP 3: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*SUP 4: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on 2018 & 3+ year lows Friday with bulls

taking comfort in the minor recovery. The 91.004-91.751 resistance region

remains key. Bulls need a close above 91.751 to shift initial focus to 92.640

and overall focus to 94.219-95.149. While 90.563 caps bears remain focused on

87.202-627 where the weekly bear channel base and Dec 2014 monthly low are

situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $63.94 Targets 2018 High 

*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6 

*RES 2: $62.96 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $62.33 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $61.88 - High Feb 16 now support 

*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from very O/S are well placed for gains

following the bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA. The contract is gaining traction

above the 55-DMA ($61.06) adding to bullish confidence. Overall bulls look for a

close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close

below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA to target the 200-DMA

($53.58).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Failure Concern For Bulls

*RES 4: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 3 2014 

*RES 3: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 2: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 1: $1361.7 - High Feb 16

*PRICE: $1348.3 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1339.1 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1336.8 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: $1309.6 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high is

less than ideal for bulls. Bulls need a close above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$1391.8-1433.3. Daily studies remain well placed for gains. Bears now need a

close below $1336.8 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to

$1302.5-1309.6 where the 55-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]