MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2371 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 2: $1.2337 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2290 Hourly resistance Apr 4, High Apr 6

*PRICE: $1.2271 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 2: $1.2209 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the bull channel base last week lacked follow through

with bears now looking for a close below $1.2209 to confirm initial focus on

$1.2092-1.2156 where the 100-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern

for bears ($1.2216) and limits follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.2371

to gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to focus on $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT

bear channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3873-1.3963 Support Key

*RES 4: $1.4243 200-WMA 

*RES 3: $1.4200 High Mar 28 

*RES 2: $1.4127 Hourly support Mar 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.4104 High Apr 6

*PRICE: $1.4096 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4068 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 2: $1.4026 Hourly resistance Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3963 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 4: $1.3934 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA ($1.4000) last

week despite dips below. The $1.3873-1.3963 support region is key this week.

Bears need a close below to confirm a break of the bull channel base off Nov 13

lows and shift initial focus to $1.3710-69. Bulls still need a close above

$1.4127 to gain breathing room and return focus to $1.4243-1.4349 where the

200-WMA & 2018 high are located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.69 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: Y109.51 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.03 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.69 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: Y104.35 LT Rising TL off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA (Y107.19)

with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. Bears look for a close below

Y106.69 to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is key

today. Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03-42 with a close

above this region to target Y109.29-110.63 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.

Daily studies approaching O/B is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 3: Y132.27 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.13 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.61 High Apr 6

*PRICE: Y131.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.59 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and

capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.05) key topside. Bulls need a

close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018

highs with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 last

week with bears still needing a close below this level to return focus to

Y128.94-129.59 where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8667 Support Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8807 Low Mar 16 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8768 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6

*PRICE: Gbp0.8706 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8699 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8671 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of key DMAs

the pair looking offered and focus back on Gbp0.8667-71 where the 100-WMA is

noted. A close below the 100-WMA was last seen in Jan 2016. Bears need a close

below 2018 lows to confirm a break and target Gbp0.8313. While the 100-WMA

supports bulls target 2018 highs but need a close above the 100-DMA to add

support to their case and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7810 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7801 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7724 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7692 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7634 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7586 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of key DMAs $0.7724-0.7828 remain a concern for

bulls. Overall bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Momentum has

corrected to more neutral levels but the Slow Stochastic remains very O/S with

bears now needing a close below $0.7630 to reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86. Below

$0.7500 initially targets $0.7319.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Another Break Lacks Follow Through

*RES 4: 91.097 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 1: 90.260 - Hourly support Apr 5 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.165 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.932 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.777 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 4: 89.633 - High Mar 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges remains lacking with the

topside break failure seeing pressure back on the 89.534-927 region where 21 &

55-DMAs are noted. Bears continue to look for a close below 89.534 to confirm

breaks of DMAs and return focus to tests of 2018 lows. Bulls maintain the

advantage while 89.534 supports and currently focus on 97.011-751 where the

100-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.859 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 2: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 1: 2.838 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: 2.797 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.768 - Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the marginal close above 21 (2.821) &

55 (2.814) DMAs with the sell-off Friday leaving the Yield looking offered and

retaining initial focus on 2.717. Bears look for a close below this level to

reconfirm focus on 2.585-648 where the 100-DMA is noted. The 2.859 resistance is

key this week with bulls needing a close above to shift initial focus to tests

of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S studies are a concern for bears.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Immediate Focus On 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 3: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: $64.12 - High Apr 4 

*RES 1: $62.69 - Alternating Hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $62.34 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $60.93 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: $59.18 - High Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 4: $58.45 - Daily Bull channel base off 2017 Low

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from $66.55 continued last week with a bearish close

Friday seeing immediate focus back on the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below

the 100-DMA to confirm focus on layers of support $57.60-59.91 where the bull

channel base off 2017 lows is noted. The $64.12 resistance is key this week with

bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $65.42 to target

2018 highs. 

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1356.7 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 3: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 2: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1335.3 - High Apr 6

*PRICE: $1332.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $1312.5 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1295.6 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with bears

needing a close below to add to confidence and below the 100-DMA to confirm

focus on tests of the 200-DMA. Layers of resistance remain in place with bulls

now needing a close above Friday's high to gain breathing room and above $1356.7

to confirm initial focus on $1366.7-1374.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]