MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2371 To Confirm 55-DMA Break

*RES 4: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 1: $1.2338 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2312 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2307 Hourly support Apr 9 

*SUP 2: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2209 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the bull channel base last week lacked follow through

with bears now looking for a close below $1.2209 to confirm initial focus on

$1.2092-1.2162 where the 100-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern

for bears ($1.2219) and limits follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.2371

to gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to focus on $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT

bear channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3873-1.3963 Support Key

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4243 200-WMA, Monthly High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1.4209 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.4165 High Apr 9

*PRICE: $1.4132 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4068 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 2: $1.4026 Hourly resistance Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3963 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 4: $1.3934 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA ($1.4003) last

week despite dips below. The $1.3873-1.3963 support region is key this week.

Bears need a close below to confirm a break of the bull channel base off Nov 13

lows and shift initial focus to $1.3710-69. The $1.4243-1.4349 resistance region

is key. A weekly close above would target $1.5018 2016 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.49 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.10 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: Y106.26 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA Thursday

with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. A close below the 21-DMA is

now needed to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is

key. Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03-42 with a close

above this region to target Y109.29-110.56 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.

Daily studies approaching O/B is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Remains On Key DMAs

*RES 4: Y133.05 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y132.20 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.15 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.86 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.60 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and capped ahead of

the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.05) key topside. Bulls need a close above the

100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018 highs with a close

above Y134.16 to confirm. The 21-DMA has been supporting but bears look for a

close below Y130.82 to ease bullish pressure and below Y129.97 to return focus

to Y128.94-129.60 where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8667 Support Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8761 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8723 High Apr 9

*PRICE: Gbp0.8706 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8695 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8671 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows was capped ahead of key DMAs  and focus

back on Gbp0.8667-71 where the 100-WMA is noted. A close below the 100-WMA was

last seen in Jan 2016. Bears need a close below 2018 lows to confirm a break and

target Gbp0.8313. While the 100-WMA supports bulls target 2018 highs but need a

close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 100-DMA to add

support to their case and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Looking To Gain Traction Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7811 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7794 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7756 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $0.7727 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7718 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 3: $0.7634 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair looks to gain traction above the

21-DMA with layers of resistance $0.7756-0.7842 where WMA & DMAs and the falling

TL off 2018 highs are found. Bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish

hopes and shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62.

Bears need a close below $0.7691 to gain breathing room and below $0.7630 to

confirm a break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.959 - Hourly resistance Apr 9

*PRICE: 90.898 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.767 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 3: 89.633 - High Mar 27 now support

*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges remains lacking with the

topside break failure seeing pressure back on the 89.633-767 region where the

55-DMA is noted. Bears continue to look for a close below 89.633 to confirm

breaks of DMAs and return focus to tests of 2018 lows. Bulls maintain the

advantage while 89.633 supports but now need a close above 90.273 to return

pressure to 90.597.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.859 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 2: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 1: 2.838 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: 2.808 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.768 - Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The yield continues to trade below 21 (2.817) & 55 (2.817) DMAs,

although follow through has been lacking, with bears now needing a close below

2.768 to add weight to the case for a test of 2.609-648 where the 100-DMA

(2.641) is found. The 2.859 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S studies

remain a concern for bears.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bulls Need Close Above $64.12 

*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.12 - High Apr 4

*PRICE: $63.77 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $63.20 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $62.43 - Hourly resistance Apr 9 now support 

*SUP 3: $61.81 - Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $60.95 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week is less than ideal for bears who

continue to look for a close below the 100-DMA to initially pressure $59.18-91

and then the $57.60 Feb low. The $64.12 resistance remains key this week with

bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $65.42 to target

2018 highs. While $64.12 caps bears retain the upper hand but need a close below

$63.22 to gain breathing room.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1356.7 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 1: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $1334.4 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1312.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with bears

needing a close below to add to confidence and below the 100-DMA to confirm

focus on tests of the 200-DMA. Gains Monday provided bulls breathing room but

the $1356.7 resistance is key this week with bulls needing a close above to

confirm initial focus on $1366.7-1374.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]