MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.2477

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 2: $1.2434 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $1.2377 High Apr 10

*PRICE: $1.2361 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2325 Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2209 Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dips below the bull channel base sees

a close above the 55-DMA ($1.2338) with bulls now looking for a close above

$1.2477 to confirm a return in focus to $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT bear channel

top off 2018 highs is located. Support layers accumulating is a concern for

bears. Initial support is noted at $1.2325 but bears need a close below $1.2290

to return focus to $1.2153-1.2209.

     CABLE TECHS: Approaching 200-WMA Again

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4243 200-WMA, Monthly High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1.4228 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.4200 High Mar 28

*PRICE: $1.4177 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4145 Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1.4104 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.4068 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.4026 Hourly resistance Apr 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA ($1.4003) last

week despite dips below and has worked its way back towards the 200-WMA and the

$1.4243-1.4349 resistance as a while. Bulls need a weekly close above this

region to target $1.5018 2016 highs. bears now need a close below $1.4104 to

ease bullish pressure and target a correction back to the $1.3873-1.3963 support

region.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.49 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.07 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: Y106.29 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA Thursday

with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. A close below the 21-DMA is

now needed to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is

key. Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03-42 with a close

above this region to target Y109.29-110.54 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.

The Bollinger top (Y107.63) is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.05 100-DMA, 21-WMA

*RES 1: Y132.61 High Apr 10

*PRICE: Y132.32 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.16 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y131.99 High Apr 9 now support 

*SUP 3: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 4: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back towards the 21-DMA (Y130.94) resulted

in closes above 55 & 200-DMAs with immediate focus on the 21-WMA and 100-DMA.

Bulls still need a close above these MAs to end bearish hopes and shift overall

focus back to 2018 highs. The Bollinger top (Y132.41) is the key concern for

bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y131.99 to ease bullish pressure and

below Y130.82 to shift initial focus back to Y128.94-129.96.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8667 Support Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8754 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8727 High Apr 10

*PRICE: Gbp0.8716 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8690 Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8671 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows was capped ahead of key DMAs and focus

back on Gbp0.8667-71 where the 100-WMA is noted. A close below the 100-WMA was

last seen in Jan 2016. Bears need a close below 2018 lows to confirm a break and

target Gbp0.8313. While the 100-WMA supports bulls target 2018 highs but need a

close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 100-DMA to add

support to their case and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7842 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: $0.7818 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7812 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7787 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 1: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: $0.7755 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7715 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 3: $0.7635 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair gains traction above the 21-DMA

($0.7715) with focus on $0.7784-0.7842 where key WMA and DMAs and the falling TL

off 2018 highs are found. Bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish hopes

and shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Bears

need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7630 to

confirm a break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Looking Heavy Once Again

*RES 4: 91.005 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10

*PRICE: 89.570 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.205 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges remains lacking with the

topside break failure now seeing a close below the 55-DMA (89.769) and immediate

focus back on the 88.942 support. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower. Bulls now look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above

90.597 to shift immediate focus to 91.005-751 where the 100-DMA (91.005) is

found.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.859 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 2: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 1: 2.838 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: 2.793 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.768 - Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The yield continues to trade below 21 (2.813) & 55 (2.819) DMAs,

although follow through has been lacking, with bears now needing a close below

2.768 to add weight to the case for a test of 2.609-648 where the 100-DMA

(2.646) is found. The 2.859 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018 highs. Daily studies are now back

at neutral levels.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bulls Dominate While $63.94 Supports 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 1: $66.55 - High Mar 26

*PRICE: $65.38 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $64.37 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $63.94 - Hourly resistance Apr 10 now support 

*SUP 3: $63.20 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $62.43 - Hourly resistance Apr 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week has resulted in another aggressive

rally Tuesday that sees immediate focus return to $66.55-66. Bulls need a close

above this region to then target $69.54-73.25. Daily studies are perfectly

placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now look for a close below $64.37 to gain

breathing room and below $63.94 to shift focus back to $61.03-81 where the

100-DMA is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1356.7 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 1: $1342.6 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $1340.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9 

*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1313.6 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with bears

needing a close below to add to confidence and below the 100-DMA to confirm

focus on tests of the 200-DMA. Gains Monday provided bulls breathing room but

the $1356.7 resistance is key this week with bulls needing a close above to

confirm initial focus on $1366.7-1374.9. Bears now need a close below $1330.9 to

gain breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]