MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2290

*RES 4: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 3: $1.2428 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: $1.2395 High Apr 11

*RES 1: $1.2353 Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2328 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2209 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2176 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bear channel top sees the pair

flirting with the 55-DMA ($1.2335) and pressuring initial support. Bears

continue to look for a close below $1.2290 to return focus to $1.2153-1.2209

where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls now need a close above $1.2353 to gain

breathing room and above $1.2477 to confirm a return in focus to $1.2555-1.2611

where the LT bear channel top off 2018 highs is located.

     CABLE TECHS: 200-WMA Remains A Stumbling Block

*RES 4: $1.4349 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: $1.4259 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.4244 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1.4234 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4182 Hourly support Apr 12 

*SUP 2: $1.4145 Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 3: $1.4096 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.4068 Hourly support Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA ($1.4005) last

week despite dips below and has worked its way back towards the 200-WMA and the

$1.4244-1.4349 resistance as a whole. Bulls need a weekly close above this

region to target $1.5018 2016 highs. Bears need a close below $1.4182 to gain

breathing room and below $the 21-DMA to shift focus back to the $1.3873-1.3963

support region.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA & Y107.49 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.35 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: Y106.37 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Y106.57-107.49 sideways trading continues as the pair oscillates

around the 55-DMA. Bulls look for a close above Y107.49 to reconfirm focus on

Y108.03-42 with a close above this region to target Y109.29-110.54 where key DMA

and WMAs are situated. Bears still need a close below the 21-DMA to shift

initial focus back to Y105.29 and hint at a move back to 2018 lows. While the

21-DMA supports bulls hold a slight advantage and look for a break higher.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA To Focus On 2018 High

*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.06 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.61 High Apr 10

*PRICE: Y132.36 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y129.61 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y131.99 lacked follow through with bears now needing a

close below Y131.78 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (Y131.04) and shift initial focus back to Y128.94-129.96.

Bulls now look for a close above Y132.61 to add support to their case and above

the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to 2018 highs. The

Bollinger top (Y132.67) is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8690

*RES 4: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8737 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8690 Low Apr 10 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8660 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8642 2018 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8515 High May 15 2017 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8380 Monthly Low May 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Gbp0.8797 has resulted in 2018 & 12mth

lows with bears now looking for a weekly close below the 100-WMA (Gbp0.8670) to

Gbp0.8380-0.8515 to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above

Gbp0.8690 to gain breathing room and above Gbp0.8749 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and to return focus to Gbp0.8797-0.8819 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of Key Resistance Layers

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7813 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7774 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*PRICE: $0.7770 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7707 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $0.7635 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.7774-0.7842 where the falling TL off 2018

highs and key DMA & WMAs are noted is a concern. Narrowing Bolli bands increase

the risk of a break out. Bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish hopes

and shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus to $0.8135-62. Bears need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7630 to confirm a

break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 89.970

*RES 4: 90.935 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10

*PRICE: 89.775 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.660 - Hourly support Apr 12

*SUP 2: 89.345 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low

*SUP 3: 89.194 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the daily bull

channel base off 2018 lows following the most recent topside failure. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above

90.597 to shift immediate focus to 90.935-91.011 where the 100-DMA is found. The

88.942 support is key with bears needing a close below to confirm traction below

the channel base and to initially target 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.859 To Target 2018 High

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.859 - High Mar 27

*PRICE: 2.821 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12 

*SUP 2: 2.799 - Hourly resistance Apr 12 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 4: 2.729 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally and bullish close Thursday sees bulls gain

breathing room and pressure return to 2.859. The 2.859 resistance remains key

this week. Bulls need a close above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018

highs. Support layers building add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a

close below 2.799 to gain breathing room and return initial focus to 2.717-748

where the Bollinger band base is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below $65.68 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $69.11 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $67.38 - 2018 High Apr 11 (Cont)

*PRICE: $66.73 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.94 - Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: $65.68 - Hourly support Apr 11 

*SUP 3: $65.09 - Low Apr 11 

*SUP 4: $64.35 - Hourly support Apr 10

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week has resulted in aggressive rallies

and fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Wednesday with bulls now targeting $69.11-73.25.

Daily studies are perfectly placed for a fresh leg higher but the Bollinger band

top ($67.42) is a concern. Bears now look for a close below $65.68 to gain

breathing room and below the 21-DMA ($64.19) to shift focus back to $60.98-61.81

where the 100-DMA is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1226.9 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $1353.2 - High Apr 12

*PRICE: $1340.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9 

*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1314.7 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of 2018 highs resulted in a sharp correction lower

with immediate pressure back on $1326.9-1330.9. Bears need a close below $1326.9

to confirm initial focus on $1314.7-1318.3 where the 100-DMA is noted. Below the

100-DMA is needed to initially target 2018 lows and then the 200-DMA ($1297.9).

Bulls now need a close above $1353.2 to return focus to $1366.0-1391.8 where

2018, 2016 & 2014 highs are located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]