Trial now
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(U1) Holding Onto Gains

ASIA

Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Friday:

USDCAD TECHS

Returning Lower

US TSYS SUMMARY

Risk-On Ahead July Employment Report

18 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2477 To Target LT Bear Channel Top
*RES 4: $1.2603 LT Bear channel top off 2008 high
*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2477 High Mar 27
*RES 1: $1.2418 Daily Bear channel top
*PRICE: $1.2380 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2334 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 
*SUP 4: $1.2209 Low Apr 6
*COMMENTARY: The daily bear channel top off 2018 highs continues to confirm
significance having capped Tuesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above
$1.2477 to confirm focus on $1.2555-1.2603 where 2018 highs & the LT bear
channel top off 2008 highs are located. Bulls take comfort in the 55-DMA
supporting with a close below $1.2290 needed to return initial focus to
$1.2153-1.2209 where the 100-DMA ($1.2192) is situated.
     CABLE TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Looking To Correct
*RES 4: $1.5018 2016 High June 24 2016 
*RES 3: $1.4664 Weekly Bull channel top 
*RES 2: $1.4376 2018 High Apr 17 
*RES 1: $1.4346 Hourly resistance Apr 17
*PRICE: $1.4300 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4280 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 2: $1.4218 Low Apr 13 
*SUP 3: $1.4182 Hourly support Apr 12 
*SUP 4: $1.4145 Hourly support Apr 10
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & nearly 2 year highs lacked follow through with the
close below $1.4296 ringing alarm bells when combined with daily studies looking
to correct from O/B, momentum divergence and proximity of the Bollinger top
($1.4333). Bears now need a close below $1.4218 to shift focus back to
$1.4104-45 with the 21-DMA at $1.4142. Bulls look for a close above $1.4376 to
confirm focus on the weekly bull channel top.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y108.42 To Target Key WMAs & DMAs
*RES 4: Y109.08 21-WMA 
*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y107.77 High Apr 5
*PRICE: Y107.30 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.85 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 2: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 
*SUP 3: Y106.50 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of the Y108.03-42 resistance region
bears take additional comfort in pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y106.93).
Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back
to Y105.29 and hint at a move back to 2018 lows and the LT rising TL (Y104.42)
off 2016 lows. Bulls still need a close above Y108.42 to shift focus to
Y109.08-110.49 where key DMA and WMAs are located.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8
*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 2: Y133.19 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Y133.06 100-DMA
*PRICE: Y132.84 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.09 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 2: Y131.90 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 
*SUP 4: Y131.33 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 55-DMA provides bulls comfort with
bears needing a close below Y131.78 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82
to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to Y128.94-129.97.
Topside hesitation continues with bulls looking for a close above the 100-DMA to
end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to 2018 highs. The Bollinger top
and O/B studies looking to correct remain key concerns for bulls.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8690
*RES 4: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8717 21-DMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8690 Low Apr 10 now resistance 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8679 100-WMA
*PRICE: Gbp0.8653 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8618 2018 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8515 High May 15 2017 now support 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8380 Monthly Low May 10 2017
*COMMENTARY: The marginal weekly close below the 100-WMA adds weight to the
bearish case for a move now initially targeting Gbp0.8380-0.8515 with below
Gbp0.8380 to confirm focus on Gbp0.8313 2017 lows. Bulls need a close above
Gbp0.8690 to gain breathing room and above Gbp0.8749 to confirm a break of the
21-DMA and to return focus to Gbp0.8797-0.8812 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located.
The Bollinger band base (Gbp0.863%) and O/S studies are concerns for bears.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7842 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: $0.7916 - High Mar 14
*RES 3: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 2: $0.7815 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7790 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7769 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7750 - Low Apr 13 
*SUP 2: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 
*SUP 3: $0.7716 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10
*COMMENTARY: The $0.7842 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a
close above to confirm breaks of 55 & 200-DMAs. The $0.7735 level provided the
base for Friday's rally with bears needing a close below this level to gain
breathing room and below the 21-DMA to return initial focus to 2018 lows and the
100-WMA ($0.7640). Overall bears need a close below the weekly bull channel base
($0.7595) off 2016 lows to initially target $0.7500 and then $0.7319.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 89.970
*RES 4: 90.597 - High Apr 6 
*RES 3: 90.273 - High Apr 9 
*RES 2: 89.970 - High Apr 10 
*RES 1: 89.660 - Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance
*PRICE: 89.529 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 89.229 - Low Apr 17
*SUP 2: 89.112 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27
*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*COMMENTARY: The 89.970 resistance confirmed significance with the index capped
ahead to start the new week. Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips
below the bull channel base with bears needing a close below 88.942 to confirm
traction below the channel base and initially target 2018 lows. Bulls continue
to look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above 90.597 to
shift immediate focus to 90.830-91.011 where the 100-DMA is found.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.865 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 
*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 
*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 
*RES 1: 2.865 - High Apr 16
*PRICE: 2.836 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.812 - Hourly support Apr 12 
*SUP 2: 2.799 - Hourly resistance Apr 12 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 
*SUP 4: 2.730 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking on the marginal break of 2.859
with the yield drifting back towards initial support. Bears continue to look for
a close below 2.799 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (2.811), gain breathing
room and return initial focus to 2.717-748 where the Bollinger band base is
noted. Bulls now look for a close above 2.865 to shift initial focus to tests of
2018 highs. The Bollinger band top (2.893) is the key concern for bulls.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Finding Support On Dips 
*RES 4: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 
*RES 3: $69.31 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: $67.68 - 2018 High Apr 16 
*RES 1: $66.92 - Hourly resistance Apr 16
*PRICE: $66.90 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $65.59 - Low Apr 17 
*SUP 2: $65.09 - Low Apr 11 
*SUP 3: $64.90 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $64.10 - High Apr 5 now support
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs lacked follow through leaving a bearish key
day reversal in place. Bears have so far failed to capitalise with the bounce
Tuesday seeing initial pressure back on $66.92. Bulls need a close above $66.92
to gain breathing room and above 2018 highs to reassert dominance and initially
target the bull channel top. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to ease
bullish pressure and below $64.10 to target $61.23-86.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21 & 55-DMAs
*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 
*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 2: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25 
*RES 1: $1353.2 - High Apr 12
*PRICE: $1344.4 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1336.8 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1331.5 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 
*SUP 4: $1326.7 - Daily Bull channel base off Dec low
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards 21 &
55-DMAs but continue to look for a close above $1353.2 to return focus to
$1366.0-1391.8 where 2018, 2016 & 2014 highs are located. Layers of support
remain $1316.4-1336.8. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to shift
immediate focus back to $1299.8-1302.5 where Mar lows and the 200-DMA are noted.
Below the 200-DMA is needed to target Dec lows ($1235.9).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]