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Needle Points South

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Probes The Bear Trigger

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Key S/T Resistance Exposed

24 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Flirting With 21-WMA & 100-DMA
*RES 4: $1.2405 Daily Bear channel top off Feb high
*RES 3: $1.2359 Hourly resistance Apr 19
*RES 2: $1.2312 Hourly support Apr 20 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2248 Low Apr 20 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2208 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2183 Hourly support Apr 24 
*SUP 2: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 
*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.2037 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Losses continued to start the new week with the pair flirting with
the 21-WMA ($1.2204) & 100-DMA ($1.2207) as bears focus immediate attention on
$1.2153. Bears need a close below this level to shift initial focus to
$1.2000-92 where the bear channel base ($1.2037) & 200-DMA are found. Bulls need
a close above $1.2248 to gain breathing room and above $1.2413 to shift focus
back to $1.2405-13.
     CABLE TECHS: 21-WMA & 100-DMA Supports Key
*RES 4: $1.4171 Low Apr 18 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.4108 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $1.4031 High Apr 23 
*RES 1: $1.3984 Hourly support Apr 23 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3943 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3893 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: $1.3873 Low Mar 13 
*SUP 3: $1.3854 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.3850 21-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined after the lack of topside follow through on 2018 &
nearly 2yr highs last week. Immediate focus is now on $1.3850-73 where the
100-DMA & 21-WMA are located. Below these MAs then targets $1.3656-1.3710. Daily
studies remain well placed for losses. Bulls now need a close above $1.4031 to
gain breathing room and above $1.4171 to hint at a move back to 2018 highs and
above $1.4280 to confirm.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.47 To Target 2018 High
*RES 4: Y109.79 High Feb 8 
*RES 3: Y109.45 100-WMA 
*RES 2: Y109.00 100-DMA 
*RES 1: Y108.94 21-WMA
*PRICE: Y108.80 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 
*SUP 2: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support 
*SUP 3: y107.85 High Apr 20 now support 
*SUP 4: Y107.48 Hourly support Apr 20
*COMMENTARY: Bulls flexed their muscles Monday with a break of Y108.03-42
confirming immediate focus on key WMAs and DMAs noted Y109.00-110.47. A close
above Y110.47 is needed to confirm breaks and target 2018 highs. Initial support
is noted at Y108.54 but bears look for a close below Y107.85 to ease bullish
pressure and shift focus back to Y106.57-107.34 where the 21 & 55 DMAs are
situated. The Bollinger top (Y108.55) is the key concern for bulls.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Capping, Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8
*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 2: Y133.34 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Y133.03 100-DMA
*PRICE: Y132.84 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.02 Low Apr 20 
*SUP 2: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 
*SUP 3: Y131.64 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y131.05 Low Apr 5
*COMMENTARY: Despite repeatedly pressuring the 100-DMA & 21-WMA (Y132.95) last
week bears failed to manage the close above needed to shift initial focus to
Y134.16 and overall focus to 2018 highs. Correcting O/B daily studies remain a
concern for bulls and add weight to the bearish case. Bears now look for a close
below the 55-DMA to hint at a move to Y128.94-130.14 where 2018 lows, 55
(Y130.14) & 200 (Y129.31) WMAs are noted with below Y131.05 to confirm.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-WMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8841 Low Mar 14 now resistance 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8823 55-WMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8811 100-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27
*PRICE: Gbp0.8756 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8733 Low Apr 20 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8726 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8686 Low Apr 19 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18
*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies and Bolli base (Gbp0.8642) limiting follow
through impacted with an aggressive correction that sees focus return to
Gbp0.8797-0.8823 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 55-WMA are located. A close above the
55-WMA hints at a move back to Gbp0.8874-0.8904 with the 200-DMA at Gbp0.8883.
Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and
below Gbp0.8664 to return focus to Gbp0.8380-0.8515.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With Weekly Bull Channel Base
*RES 4: $0.7763 - Hourly support Apr 19 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20
*RES 1: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*PRICE: $0.7607 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support 
*SUP 2: $0.7498 - Monthly Low Dec 8 
*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 
*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 200-DMA ($0.7812) failures last week has resulted
in fresh 2018 & 4mth lows with the pair flirting with the LT bull channel base
off 2016 lows ($0.7603). Bears now look for a close below $0.7580 to initially
pressure Dec lows. A close below Dec lows then targets $0.7326 May lows. Bulls
now need a close above $0.7640 to gain breathing room and above $0.7735 to shift
focus back to $0.7814-42 where the 200-DMA is noted.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking So Far
*RES 4: 92.046 - 200-DMA 
*RES 3: 92.033 - Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 high 
*RES 2: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 1: 91.076 - Hourly resistance Apr 24
*PRICE: 90.896 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 90.618 - Hourly support Apr 23
*SUP 2: 90.483 - Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support
*SUP 3: 90.209 - Hourly support Apr 20
*SUP 4: 89.898 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the pop above 91.011 is less than
ideal for bulls who need a close above this level to shift focus to
91.751-92.046 where the 200-DMA and weekly bear channel top off 2017 highs are
noted. Daily studies are well placed for gains with the Bollinger top (90.832)
the key concern. Bears need a close below 90.483 to ease bullish pressure and
below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to 88.942-89.229.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Lacking Topside Follow Through
*RES 4: 3.168 - Weekly Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 
*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 1: 2.990 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*PRICE: 2.962 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 
*SUP 2: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 
*SUP 3: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support 
*SUP 4: 2.862 - Low Apr 19
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through is a concern for bulls when
combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the proximity of the
Bollinger band top (2.963). Bears need a close below 2.962 today to ease bullish
pressure and below 2.876 to shift initial focus back to 2.814. Below 2.814 is
needed to end bullish hopes and initially target 2.694-748. Until a close below
2.962 is seen bulls focus on 3.041-073 where 2014 highs are situated.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Support Emerging On Dips
*RES 4: $73.71 - Weekly Bull channel top 
*RES 3: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 
*RES 2: $72.41 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19
*PRICE: $68.93 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $68.66 - High Apr 20 now support 
*SUP 2: $67.14 - Low Apr 23 
*SUP 3: $66.54 - Low Apr 18 
*SUP 4: $65.59 - Low Apr 17
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips provides bulls confidence but a close
above $69.55 is needed to reconfirm focus on $72.41-73.71 following last week's
lack of topside follow through. O/B daily studies and momentum divergence are
seen as concerns for bulls. Bears now look for a close below $67.14 to gain
breathing room and hint at a correction back to $65.09-65.74 where the 21-DMA
($65.74) is found.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 100-DMA Support Key This Week
*RES 4: $1356.2 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: $1355.7 - High Apr 18 
*RES 2: $1339.3 - Hourly resistance Apr 20 
*RES 1: $1331.0 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1326.2 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1321.2 - Low Apr 6 
*SUP 2: $1318.0 - Low Apr 10 
*SUP 3: $1306.9 - Daily Bull channel base off Dec low 
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Monthly Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: Pressure resulted in a break of the bull channel base off Dec lows
with immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to
shift initial focus back to $1291.2-1302.5 where the 55-WMA ($1291.2), 200-DMA
($1302.0) & March low ($1302.5) are located. Bulls now need a close above the
55-DMA to gain breathing room and above $1339.3 to return focus to
$1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are located.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]