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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

5 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.1854 High May 16
*RES 2: $1.1757 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24
*PRICE: $1.1690 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1616 Low June 1 
*SUP 2: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 3: $1.1549 Hourly resistance May 30 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is less than ideal for bulls. In
saying that, bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and
above $1.1889 to shift immediate focus back to $1.2011-58 where the 55 &
200-DMAs are situated. While the 21-DMA caps bears focus on the key
$1.1311-1.1489 support region with a close below $1.1616 still needed to add
weight to their case.
     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3421 To Target $1.3586-1.3711
*RES 4: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22 
*RES 3: $1.3421 High May 24 
*RES 2: $1.3412 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $1.3411 55-WMA
*PRICE: $1.3310 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3292 Low June 4 
*SUP 2: $1.3240 Low May 30 
*SUP 3: $1.3203 2018 Low May 29 
*SUP 4: $1.3068 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $1.3411-21 where the 21-DMA and 55-WMA are
noted has left the pair looking heavy once more with focus on the break of
$1.3203 needed to reconfirm the bearish bias and focus on $1.2995-1.3068 where
the 100-WMA is found. Bulls now need a close above $1.3421 to shift focus to
$1.3588-1.3711 where the 200-DMA is located. A close above $1.3711 is needed to
initially target $1.3778-1.3893 where 55 & 100-DMAs are found.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.72 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 
*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 
*RES 2: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y110.20 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.83 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.36 Low June 4 
*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 
*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 
*SUP 4: Y108.12 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Last Tuesday's sell-off saw the pair dip into Y107.85-108.35 where
55 & 100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.09) are situated. Bears now need a close
below Y109.01 to gain breathing room. Bears continue to look for a close below
Y107.85 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to Y106.60.
Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the case for a test of Y110.72
with a close above needed to return immediate focus to Y111.39-98.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y129.51
*RES 4: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance
*RES 3: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance
*RES 2: Y129.06 21-DMA
*RES 1: Y129.05 200-WMA
*PRICE: Y128.39 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y127.89 Hourly support June 4 
*SUP 2: Y127.56 Low June 4 
*SUP 3: Y127.10 Low June 1 
*SUP 4: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in gains to start the new week as daily studies
look to correct from very O/S levels adding support to the case for a correction
back to Y129.05-129.51 where the 21-DMA & 200-WMA are noted. The Y127.10 support
remains key this week. Bears now look for a close below Y127.10 to return
initial focus to 2018 lows. Overall bears need a close below the 100-WMA
(Y125.33) to retain bearish momentum and target the bull channel base (Y122.51).
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Weekly Bear Channel Top Capping
*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8858 55-WMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8840 200-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8810 Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 High
*PRICE: Gbp0.8781 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8750 55-DMA, Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8724 Low June 1 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: Follow through on pops above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8788) remains
lacking with the pair capped around the weekly bear channel top (Gbp0.8810) off
2017 highs last week. Pressure returning to the channel top is less than ideal
for bears. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to confirm a break of the channel
top and to shift initial focus back to 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a
close below Gbp0.8694 to confirm a return in focus to tests of 2018 lows.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7593
*RES 4: $0.7754 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7748 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7682 - High Apr 23
*PRICE: $0.7636 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7516 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: $0.7593 - High May 31 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7542 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $0.7513 - Low June 1
*COMMENTARY: Gains to start the new week resulted in a close above the falling
TL off 2018 highs ($0.7628), the 55-DMA and the $0.7640 resistance with focus
now shifting to $0.7735-54 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted. The $0.7640
Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look for a close below
$0.7593 to signal a false break higher and to see focus return to layers of
support $0.7410-0.7513.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.611 Support Confirms Significance
*RES 4: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 
*RES 3: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 
*RES 2: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 1: 94.450 - High June 1
*PRICE: 94.068 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.634 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 93.611 - Low May 24
*SUP 3: 93.291 - Low May 22
*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The 93.611 support confirmed significance to start the new week
with the index bouncing from just ahead. Bulls now need a close above 94.450 to
end correction talk and initially focus on 2018 highs. The 93.291 support
remains key. Bears need a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
target a move back to 91.999-92.223 where the 200-DMA is noted. Correcting O/B
studies add weight to the bearish case and remain a concern for bulls.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.902 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 3: 3.014 - Low May 24 now resistance 
*RES 2: 2.975 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.938 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.926 - High June 1 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.902 - Low June 4 
*SUP 3: 2.860 - Low June 1 
*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low sees the yield pressuring the
21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 3.014 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
add support to the initial case for a retest of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S
studies add support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below 2.902 to
gain breathing room and below 2.860 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759 where Mar &
May lows are noted.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Flirting With 100-DMA
*RES 4: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31 
*RES 3: $67.34 - High June 1 
*RES 2: $66.04 - Hourly resistance June 1 
*RES 1: $65.27 - Hourly support June 4 now resistance
*PRICE: $65.13 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $63.87 - High Apr 5 
*SUP 2: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6 
*SUP 3: $59.44 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: $59.23 - Monthly Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: Losses to start the new week ensure the contact remains offered as
it now flirts with the 100-DMA ($64.73). Bears now look for a close below $63.87
to shift initial focus to $61.73 and overall focus to $56.93-59.44 where the
200-DMA and Feb lows are noted. Layers of resistance are weighing despite daily
studies at O/S levels. Bulls now need a close above $67.34 to gain breathing
room and above $68.67 to shift focus higher.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 200-DMA Caps, Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA
*RES 4: $1324.2 - 100-DMA 
*RES 3: $1318.7 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1307.4 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $1292.1 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 
*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 
*SUP 3: $1279.9 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $1276.3 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Attempts to rally remain capped by the 200-DMA last week. Bulls
still need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift
initial focus to $1318.7-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 21-WMA are noted.
Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-WMA ($1276.3) to target
$1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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