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JGB TECHS

(Z1) Tilting Lower

JAPAN

Four-Way LDP Leadership Contest Kicks Off

US TSYS

Belly-Led Cheapening In Wake Of Retail Sales

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Turning More Neutral

ECB

ECB Plays Down FT Story

6 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 21-DMA Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.1854 High May 16
*RES 2: $1.1752 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24
*PRICE: $1.1725 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1708 Hourly support June 6 
*SUP 2: $1.1616 Low June 1 
*SUP 3: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 4: $1.1549 Hourly resistance May 30 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is less than ideal for bulls. In
saying that, bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room
and above $1.1889 to shift immediate focus back to $1.2010-53 where the 55 &
200-DMAs are situated. While the 21-DMA caps bears focus on the key
$1.1311-1.1489 support region with a close below $1.1616 still needed to add
weight to their case.
     CABLE TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA & 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3591 200-DMA 
*RES 3: $1.3528 High May 18 
*RES 2: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22 
*RES 1: $1.3421 High May 24
*PRICE: $1.3407 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3379 Hourly support June 5 
*SUP 2: $1.3331 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 3: $1.3292 Low June 4 
*SUP 4: $1.3240 Low May 30
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows sees the pair flirting with the 55-WMA
($1.3413) & 21-DMA ($1.3411). Bulls need a close above $1.3421 to confirm
traction above and shift focus to $1.3591-1.3711 where the 200-DMA is situated.
Support layers building add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close
below $1.3331 to gain breathing rom and below f $1.3203 needed to reconfirm the
bearish bias and focus on $1.2995-1.3068 where the 100-WMA is found.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.72 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 
*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 
*RES 2: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y110.20 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.88 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.36 Low June 4 
*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 
*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 
*SUP 4: Y108.11 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip into the Y107.85-108.35 region where 55 &
100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.09) are situated has seen pressure return to the
200-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y110.72 to confirm traction
above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98. Daily studies
correcting from modestly O/S levels adds support to the bullish case. Bears now
need a close below Y109.01 to gain breathing room.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y129.51
*RES 4: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance
*RES 3: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance
*RES 2: Y129.05 200-WMA
*RES 1: Y129.04 21-DMA
*PRICE: Y128.83 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.18 Hourly resistance June 5 now support 
*SUP 2: Y127.77 Low June 5 
*SUP 3: Y127.56 Low June 4 
*SUP 4: Y127.10 Low June 1
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in gains as daily studies correct from very O/S
and provide a correction back to Y129.04-129.51 where the 21-DMA & 200-WMA are
noted. Bulls need a close above Y129.51 to shift immediate focus to
Y130.22-131.63 where the bear channel top off 2018 highs, 55 & 100-DMAs are
situated. Bears need a close below Y127.10 to return initial focus to 2018 lows
and below the 100-WMA (Y125.33) to  target the bull channel base (Y122.51).
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Weekly Bear Channel Top Capping
*RES 4: Gbp0.8857 55-WMA 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8837 200-DMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8810 Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 High 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8763 Hourly resistance June 5
*PRICE: Gbp0.8745 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8724 Low June 1 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18
*COMMENTARY: Follow through on pops above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8787) remains
lacking with the pair remaining capped around the weekly bear channel top
(Gbp0.8810) off 2017 highs. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to confirm a
break of the channel top and to shift initial focus back to 2018 highs. Bears
continue to look for a close below Gbp0.8694 to confirm a return in focus to
tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 below.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7593 Support Confirms Significance
*RES 4: $0.7753 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7747 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7682 - High Apr 23
*PRICE: $0.7656 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7593 - High May 31 now support 
*SUP 2: $0.7549 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: $0.7513 - Low June 1 
*SUP 4: $0.7474 - Low May 30
*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top off 2018 highs Tuesday lacked
follow through with the pullback confirming the significance of the $0.7593
support. Bears need a close below to signal a false break higher and see focus
return to layers of support $0.7410-0.7513. Bulls take comfort in pressure
returning to $0.7682 with a close above to reconfirm initial focus on $0.7735-54
where 100 & 200-DMAs and 21 & 55-WMAs are noted.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.291-611 Support Region Key
*RES 4: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 
*RES 3: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 
*RES 2: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 1: 94.450 - High June 1
*PRICE: 93.832 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.660 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 93.611 - Low May 24
*SUP 3: 93.291 - Low May 22
*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The 93.611 support confirmed significance to start the new week
with the index bouncing from just ahead. Bulls now need a close above 94.450 to
end correction talk and initially focus on 2018 highs. The 93.291 support
remains key. Bears need a close below to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and
target a move back to 92.006-223 where the 200-DMA is noted. Correcting O/B
studies add weight to the bearish case and remain a concern for bulls.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Supported Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24
*RES 2: 2.973 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.935 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.900 - Low June 5 
*SUP 2: 2.860 - Low June 1 
*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the marginal break of 2.902 finding support
below the 55-DMA (2.909) and pressure remaining on 2.955-3.014 the 21-DMA is
noted. Above 3.014 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and add support to
the initial case for a retest of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S studies add support
to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below 2.900 to gain breathing room
and below 2.860 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bulls Need Close Above $67.34
*RES 4: $68.67 - High May 30 
*RES 3: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31 
*RES 2: $67.34 - High June 1 
*RES 1: $66.04 - Hourly resistance June 1
*PRICE: $65.69 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $65.16 - Hourly support June 5 
*SUP 2: $63.87 - High Apr 5 
*SUP 3: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6 
*SUP 4: $59.53 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses to start the new week saw the contract flirting with the
100-DMA ($64.77). Bears now look for a close below $63.87 to shift initial focus
to $61.73 and overall focus to $56.93-59.53 where the 200-DMA and Feb lows are
noted. Layers of resistance are weighing despite daily studies at O/S levels.
Bulls now need a close above $67.34 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($67.34)
and gain breathing room and above $68.67 to shift focus higher.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 21-DMA Caps, Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA
*RES 4: $1318.5 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1307.4 - 200-DMA 
*RES 1: $1299.0 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1297.3 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 
*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 
*SUP 3: $1280.6 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $1276.4 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is now capping attempts to rally with the 200-DMA just
above. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and
shift initial focus to $1318.5-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 21-WMA are
noted. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-WMA to target
$1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]