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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
6 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 21-DMA Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.1854 High May 16
*RES 2: $1.1752 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24
*PRICE: $1.1725 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1708 Hourly support June 6
*SUP 2: $1.1616 Low June 1
*SUP 3: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30
*SUP 4: $1.1549 Hourly resistance May 30 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is less than ideal for bulls. In
saying that, bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room
and above $1.1889 to shift immediate focus back to $1.2010-53 where the 55 &
200-DMAs are situated. While the 21-DMA caps bears focus on the key
$1.1311-1.1489 support region with a close below $1.1616 still needed to add
weight to their case.
CABLE TECHS: Flirting With 55-WMA & 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3591 200-DMA
*RES 3: $1.3528 High May 18
*RES 2: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22
*RES 1: $1.3421 High May 24
*PRICE: $1.3407 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3379 Hourly support June 5
*SUP 2: $1.3331 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: $1.3292 Low June 4
*SUP 4: $1.3240 Low May 30
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows sees the pair flirting with the 55-WMA
($1.3413) & 21-DMA ($1.3411). Bulls need a close above $1.3421 to confirm
traction above and shift focus to $1.3591-1.3711 where the 200-DMA is situated.
Support layers building add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close
below $1.3331 to gain breathing rom and below f $1.3203 needed to reconfirm the
bearish bias and focus on $1.2995-1.3068 where the 100-WMA is found.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.72 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21
*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22
*RES 2: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance
*RES 1: Y110.20 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.88 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.36 Low June 4
*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1
*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1
*SUP 4: Y108.11 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip into the Y107.85-108.35 region where 55 &
100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.09) are situated has seen pressure return to the
200-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y110.72 to confirm traction
above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98. Daily studies
correcting from modestly O/S levels adds support to the bullish case. Bears now
need a close below Y109.01 to gain breathing room.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y129.51
*RES 4: Y130.22 Low May 18 now resistance
*RES 3: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance
*RES 2: Y129.05 200-WMA
*RES 1: Y129.04 21-DMA
*PRICE: Y128.83 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.18 Hourly resistance June 5 now support
*SUP 2: Y127.77 Low June 5
*SUP 3: Y127.56 Low June 4
*SUP 4: Y127.10 Low June 1
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in gains as daily studies correct from very O/S
and provide a correction back to Y129.04-129.51 where the 21-DMA & 200-WMA are
noted. Bulls need a close above Y129.51 to shift immediate focus to
Y130.22-131.63 where the bear channel top off 2018 highs, 55 & 100-DMAs are
situated. Bears need a close below Y127.10 to return initial focus to 2018 lows
and below the 100-WMA (Y125.33) to target the bull channel base (Y122.51).
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Weekly Bear Channel Top Capping
*RES 4: Gbp0.8857 55-WMA
*RES 3: Gbp0.8837 200-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8810 Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 High
*RES 1: Gbp0.8763 Hourly resistance June 5
*PRICE: Gbp0.8745 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8724 Low June 1
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18
*COMMENTARY: Follow through on pops above the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8787) remains
lacking with the pair remaining capped around the weekly bear channel top
(Gbp0.8810) off 2017 highs. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to confirm a
break of the channel top and to shift initial focus back to 2018 highs. Bears
continue to look for a close below Gbp0.8694 to confirm a return in focus to
tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 below.
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7593 Support Confirms Significance
*RES 4: $0.7753 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7747 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7682 - High Apr 23
*PRICE: $0.7656 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7593 - High May 31 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7549 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.7513 - Low June 1
*SUP 4: $0.7474 - Low May 30
*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top off 2018 highs Tuesday lacked
follow through with the pullback confirming the significance of the $0.7593
support. Bears need a close below to signal a false break higher and see focus
return to layers of support $0.7410-0.7513. Bulls take comfort in pressure
returning to $0.7682 with a close above to reconfirm initial focus on $0.7735-54
where 100 & 200-DMAs and 21 & 55-WMAs are noted.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.291-611 Support Region Key
*RES 4: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27
*RES 3: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29
*RES 2: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30
*RES 1: 94.450 - High June 1
*PRICE: 93.832 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.660 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 93.611 - Low May 24
*SUP 3: 93.291 - Low May 22
*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The 93.611 support confirmed significance to start the new week
with the index bouncing from just ahead. Bulls now need a close above 94.450 to
end correction talk and initially focus on 2018 highs. The 93.291 support
remains key. Bears need a close below to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and
target a move back to 92.006-223 where the 200-DMA is noted. Correcting O/B
studies add weight to the bearish case and remain a concern for bulls.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Supported Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22
*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24
*RES 2: 2.973 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.935 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.900 - Low June 5
*SUP 2: 2.860 - Low June 1
*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the marginal break of 2.902 finding support
below the 55-DMA (2.909) and pressure remaining on 2.955-3.014 the 21-DMA is
noted. Above 3.014 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and add support to
the initial case for a retest of 2018 highs. Correcting O/S studies add support
to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below 2.900 to gain breathing room
and below 2.860 to reconfirm focus on 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bulls Need Close Above $67.34
*RES 4: $68.67 - High May 30
*RES 3: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31
*RES 2: $67.34 - High June 1
*RES 1: $66.04 - Hourly resistance June 1
*PRICE: $65.69 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $65.16 - Hourly support June 5
*SUP 2: $63.87 - High Apr 5
*SUP 3: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6
*SUP 4: $59.53 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses to start the new week saw the contract flirting with the
100-DMA ($64.77). Bears now look for a close below $63.87 to shift initial focus
to $61.73 and overall focus to $56.93-59.53 where the 200-DMA and Feb lows are
noted. Layers of resistance are weighing despite daily studies at O/S levels.
Bulls now need a close above $67.34 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($67.34)
and gain breathing room and above $68.67 to shift focus higher.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: 21-DMA Caps, Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA
*RES 4: $1318.5 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance
*RES 2: $1307.4 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $1299.0 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1297.3 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22
*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21
*SUP 3: $1280.6 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: $1276.4 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is now capping attempts to rally with the 200-DMA just
above. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and
shift initial focus to $1318.5-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 21-WMA are
noted. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-WMA to target
$1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.