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THAILAND

Market Closure

JGBS

Nothing On Local Docket, Omicron Eyed

NZD

Underperforming

US EURODLR FUTURES

EDZ4/Z5 Steepener Flow

11 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above 55-WMA To Target $1.2009-53
*RES 4: $1.2016 55-DMA
*RES 3: $1.2009 200-DMA
*RES 2: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 1: $1.1854 High May 16
*PRICE: $1.1792 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1777 Hourly resistance June 8 now support 
*SUP 2: $1.1724 Low June 8 
*SUP 3: $1.1708 Low June 6 
*SUP 4: $1.1616 Low June 1
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $1.1854-91 resistance last week is less
than ideal for bulls who need a close above the 55-WMA to shift immediate focus
back to $1.2009-53 where the 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. The dip below the
21-DMA ($1.1738) Friday is a concern for bulls but a close below $1.1708 remains
needed to return initial focus to $1.1506-1.1616 where 2018 lows are located.
Daily studies now approaching O/B is a concern for bulls.
     CABLE TECHS: Focus On $1.3598-1.3727 While $1.3352 Supports
*RES 4: $1.3617 High May 9 
*RES 3: $1.3598 200-DMA 
*RES 2: $1.3528 High May 18 
*RES 1: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22
*PRICE: $1.3408 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3394 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1.3352 Low June 8 
*SUP 3: $1.3331 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 4: $1.3292 Low June 4
*COMMENTARY: The break below $1.3379 lacked follow through Friday with the pair
recovering to close above the 21-DMA ($1.3394). Bears now look for a close below
$1.3352 to gain breathing room and below $1.3203 needed to reconfirm the bearish
bias and focus on $1.2995-1.3072 where the 100-WMA is found. While $1.3352
supports bulls focus on $1.3598-1.3727 where the 200-DMA is situated and now
need a close above $1.3491 to increase bullish confidence.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y109.01 To Pressure 100-DMA
*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 
*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y110.26 High June 6 
*RES 1: Y109.84 21-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.74 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 
*SUP 2: Y108.70 Low June 1 
*SUP 3: Y108.65 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y108.06 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The rally from dips back to the 100-DMA in May have seen the pair
correct higher only to fail at the 200-DMA hurdle. The sell-off last week
resulted in an easing of bullish pressure with bears now looking for a close
below Y109.01 to shift focus back to Y107.85-108.06 although the 55-DMA may
support along the way. Bulls look for a close above Y110.72 to confirm traction
above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y127.10 To Target 2018 Low
*RES 4: Y131.08 Daily bear channel top
*RES 3: Y130.54 55-DMA
*RES 2: Y130.27 High June 7
*RES 1: Y129.78 Hourly support June 7 now resistance
*PRICE: Y129.40 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.49 Hourly support June 11 
*SUP 2: Y128.09 Low June 8 
*SUP 3: Y127.56 Low June 4 
*SUP 4: Y127.10 Low June 1
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows is in trouble with the failure ahead of
the 55-DMA resulting in a sell-off and bearish close Friday. The Y127.10 support
is key this week with bears needing a close below Y127.10 to shift focus back to
2018 lows. O/B Daily studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a
close above Y129.26 to gain breathing room and return pressure to Y130.27-132.59
where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above 55-WMA To End Bearish Hopes
*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8858 55-WMA 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8833 200-DMA 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8807 Hourly resistance June 7
*PRICE: Gbp0.8794 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8753 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8720 Low June 5 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26
*COMMENTARY: Last week's pop above the weekly bear channel top (Gbp0.8799) was
capped by the 200-DMA and ahead of the 55-WMA. Bears now need a close below the
55-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8694 to confirm a
return in focus to tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 below. Bulls still need
a close above the 55-WMA to confirm traction above the channel top and target
2018 highs.
     AUSSIE TECHS: 21-DMA Supporting For Now
*RES 4: $0.7750 - 55-WMA
*RES 3: $0.7722 - 100-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7682 - High Apr 23
*RES 1: $0.7627 - High June 8
*PRICE: $0.7602 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7566 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $0.7552 - Low June 4 
*SUP 3: $0.7513 - Low June 1 
*SUP 4: $0.7474 - Low May 30
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off following the topside failure around the 200-WMA
($0.7676) saw the pair flirting with the 21-DMA with bears needing a close below
$0.7552 to shift focus to $0.7410-74 where 2018 lows are noted. Initial
resistance is noted at $0.7627. Bulls now need a close above to gain breathing
room and above $0.7682 to pressure $0.7723-50 where 100 & 200-DMAs and 21 &
55-WMAs are noted. Above the 200-DMA shifts focus to $0.7916 Mar highs.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.933
*RES 4: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 3: 94.450 - High June 1 
*RES 2: 93.933 - Hourly resistance June 5 
*RES 1: 93.497 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PRICE: 93.491 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.213 - Low June 7
*SUP 2: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 3: 92.223 - Low May 14
*SUP 4: 92.015 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The closes below the 21-DMA adds weight to the bearish case for a
move back to 91.973-223 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. The break of 93.291
has so far lacked follow through which is less than ideal for bears, but bulls
now need a close above 93.933 to ease renewed bearish pressure and above 94.450
to regain the upper hand and initially focus on 2018 highs.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884 & 3.014 Levels Now Key
*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 
*RES 2: 2.994 - High June 7 
*RES 1: 2.967 - Hourly support June 7 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.957 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.921 - Hourly support June 8 
*SUP 2: 2.884 - Low June 7 
*SUP 3: 2.860 - Low June 1 
*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30
*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 3.014 resulted in a sell-off Thursday and dips
below the 55-DMA (2.911). Bears now need a close below 2.884 lows from Thursday
to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to return focus to 2.717-759 where Mar &
May lows are noted. Daily momentum studies are back at neutral levels and ready
for a fresh leg lower. Bulls need a close above 3.014 to confirm a break of the
21-DMA and target 2018 highs.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: $68.67 - High May 30 
*RES 3: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31 
*RES 2: $67.44 - 55-DMA 
*RES 1: $66.35 - Low May 30 now resistance
*PRICE: $65.68 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $65.15 - Low June 8 
*SUP 2: $64.85 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: $63.87 - High Apr 5 
*SUP 4: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on dips below the
100-DMA with focus having returned to $66.35-68.70 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.
Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA ($67.44) to gain breathing room and above
the 21-DMA ($68.70) to shift focus higher. While the 55-DMA caps bears retain
the advantage and need a close below $63.87 to shift initial focus to $61.73 and
overall focus to $56.93-59.78 where the 200-DMA and Feb lows are noted.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1310.5 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: $1316.5 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1307.1 - 200-DMA 
*RES 1: $1303.8 - High June 7
*PRICE: $1299.0 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 
*SUP 2: $1285.4 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 
*SUP 4: $1276.0 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Pops above the 21-DMA ($1296.3) lacked follow through with the
200-DMA just above. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 &
200-DMAs and shift initial focus to $1316.5-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the
21-WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-WMA to target
$1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]