MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1708 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1.1994 55-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 1: $1.1820 High June 11

*PRICE: $1.1743 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1724 Low June 8, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1708 Low June 6 

*SUP 3: $1.1616 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $1.1854-90 resistance last week is less

than ideal for bulls who need a close above the 55-WMA ($1.1890) to shift

initial focus to $1.1994-1.2053 where the 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Pressure

has returned to the 21-DMA ($1.1724) with bears needing a close below $1.1708 to

return initial focus to $1.1506-1.1616 where 2018 lows are located. Daily

studies at O/B levels is a concern for bulls.

     CABLE TECHS: Below $1.3203 To Target $1.2995-1.3071

*RES 4: $1.3528 High May 18 

*RES 3: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22 

*RES 2: $1.3441 High June 11 

*RES 1: $1.3424 High June 12

*PRICE: $1.3362 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3331 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.3292 Low June 4 

*SUP 3: $1.3240 Low May 30 

*SUP 4: $1.3203 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through has been lacking and sees the pair trading

back below the 21-DMA ($1.3377) and looking offered. Focus returns to the

$1.3203-92 support region with bears needing a close below $1.3203 to reconfirm

the bearish bias and focus on $1.2995-1.3071 where the 100-WMA is found. Layers

of resistance remain with bulls now needing a close above $1.3528 to shift

immediate focus to $1.3601-1.3711 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA & Y110.72 Levels Key

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance

*PRICE: Y110.65 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.10 Hourly support June 12 

*SUP 2: Y109.84 Hourly resistance June 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.82 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rally from dips back to the 100-DMA in May has seen the pair

correct higher and finally close above the 200-DMA (Y110.21). Bulls continue to

look for a close above Y110.72 to confirm traction above the 200-DMA and return

immediate focus to Y111.39-98. The 55-DMA is now key support. Bears look for a

close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below Y107.85 to shift

focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped On Approach To 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.33 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y130.94 Daily bear channel top

*RES 2: Y130.49 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y130.27 High June 7 & 12

*PRICE: Y129.93 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Y128.49 Hourly support June 11 

*SUP 3: Y128.09 Low June 8 

*SUP 4: Y127.56 Low June 4

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls as the pair

continues to hesitate ahead of the 55-DMA and layers of resistance

Y130.27-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated.

Bears now need a close below Y129.26 to gain breathing room and below Y127.10 to

shift focus back to 2018 lows. Overall bulls need a close above Y132.59 to shift

initial focus back to Y134.12-136.00 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above 55-WMA To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8859 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8828 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8814 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Gbp0.8786 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8754 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8720 Low June 5 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Pops above the weekly bear channel top (Gbp0.8799) remain capped by

the 200-DMA and ahead of the 55-WMA. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA

to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8694 to confirm a return

in focus to tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 below. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 55-WMA to confirm traction above the channel top, ending

bearish hopes and targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7552

*RES 4: $0.7749 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: $0.7713 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7682 - High Apr 23

*RES 1: $0.7627 - High June 8

*PRICE: $0.7563 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7552 - Low June 4 

*SUP 2: $0.7513 - Low June 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7474 - Low May 30 

*SUP 4: $0.7445 - Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off following the topside failure around the 200-WMA

($0.7675) sees the pair flirting with the 21-DMA ($0.7572) with bears needing a

close below $0.7552 to shift focus to $0.7410-74 where 2018 lows are noted.

Initial resistance is noted at $0.7627. Bulls need a close above to gain

breathing room and above $0.7682 to pressure $0.7713-49 where 100 & 200-DMAs and

21 & 55-WMAs are noted. Above the 200-DMA shifts focus to $0.7916 Mar highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.933 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 

*RES 3: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 2: 94.450 - High June 1 

*RES 1: 93.933 - Hourly resistance June 5

*PRICE: 93.871 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.673 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 93.366 - Low June 11

*SUP 3: 93.213 - Low June 7

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Despite closes below the 21-DMA bears have failed to trouble the

key 92.030-223 support region where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 93.933 to ease renewed bearish pressure and above 94.450

to regain the upper hand and initially focus on 2018 highs. Bears now need a

close below 93.673 to gain breathing room and below 93.213 to add weight to the

case for a test of key DMAs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884 & 3.014 Levels Key

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 1: 2.994 - High June 7

*PRICE: 2.960 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.944 - Low June 12 

*SUP 2: 2.921 - Hourly support June 8 

*SUP 3: 2.884 - Low June 7 

*SUP 4: 2.860 - Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 3.014 resulted in a sell-off last Thurs and

dips below the 55-DMA (2.918). Bears now need a close below 2.884 lows from

Thursday to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to return focus to 2.717-759 where

Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3.014 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (2.967) and target 2018 highs. Daily studies heading towards

O/B levels is a concern for bulls.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) 55-DMA Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $68.67 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31 

*RES 2: $67.48 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $66.70 - High June 12

*PRICE: $65.99 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.52 - Low June 12 

*SUP 2: $64.92 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $63.87 - High Apr 5 

*SUP 4: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on dips below the

100-DMA with focus having returned to $67.48-68.67 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.

Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above $68.67 to

shift focus higher. While the 55-DMA caps bears retain the advantage and need a

close below $63.87 to shift initial focus to $61.73 and overall focus to

$56.93-59.95 where the 200-DMA and Feb lows are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Narrowing Bollinger Bands Hint At Breakout

*RES 4: $1314.5 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1303.8 - High June 7

*PRICE: $1295.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 3: $1276.0 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1268.9 - High Dec 21

*COMMENTARY: Lacklustre trading continues with gold remaining capped ahead of

the 200-DMA. Narrowing Bollinger bands increase the risk of a break out in

coming days. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to ease bearish pressure and shift

immediate focus to $1314.5-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs are found. Bears need a

close below the 100-WMA to reconfirm a bearish bias and target $1233.4-1234.3

where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]