MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Support Emerging Ahead Of 2018 Lows

*RES 4: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1673 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: $1.1618 Hourly support June 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1561 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1528 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1406 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears remain focused on tests of 2018 lows although follow through

remains lacking with support emerging ahead of 2018 lows. The Bollinger base

($1.1510) is the key concern for bears and limits follow through. Bears continue

to look for a close below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1429) & 200-WMAs,

shifting immediate focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close

above $1.1723 to shift focus back to $1.1854-94.

     CABLE TECHS: Focus Remains On $1.2995-1.3071

*RES 4: $1.3414 Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3350 Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 2: $1.3297 High June 15 

*RES 1: $1.3223 Low June 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3160 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3146 2018 Low June 20 

*SUP 2: $1.3071 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2849 Low Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in fresh 2018 & 9mth lows with the closes below

$1.3203 confirming immediate focus on the $1.2995-1.3071 support region where

the 100-WMA is noted. The pair has room to move before O/S is an issue although

the Bollinger base ($1.3156) limits follow through. Bulls need a close above

$1.3223 to gain breathing room and above $1.3350 to return focus to

$1.3446-3528. Bears now need a close below $1.3146 to add weight to their case.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.90 High June 15

*PRICE: Y110.57 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.25 Hourly resistance June 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.83 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.53 Low June 19 

*SUP 4: Y109.24 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 200-DMA (Y110.24) but

look for a close above Y110.90 to confirm traction above the 200-DMA and shift

initial focus to Y111.39-98. Y109.01 support remains key this week. Bears need a

close below this level to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially pressure

Y107.85-108.16 where the 100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back

to 2018 lows. Daily studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y128.64 to Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: Y128.01 Hourly resistance June 20

*PRICE: Y127.86 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.63 Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 2: Y127.09 Low June 20 

*SUP 3: Y126.63 Low June 19 

*SUP 4: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: Despite an aggressive sell-off this week downside follow through

has been lacking. Bears focus on the Y126.22 support with a close below needed

to add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows and a potential move back to

the bull channel base (Y122.89). Bulls continue to look for a close above

Y128.64 to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA once

again.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8750

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8858 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8820 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8801 High June 20

*PRICE: Gbp0.8783 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8766 Low June 20 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8750 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: The close above Gbp0.8789 Wednesday shifted focus back to

Gbp0.8820-58 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls look for a close

above the 55-WMA to shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8967-0.9107. Initial

support is now noted at Gbp0.8766 with bears needing a close below Gbp0.8750 to

gain breathing room. A close below Gbp0.8694 remains needed to confirm focus on

tests of 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7326 To Target 2017 Low

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 2: $0.7456 - High June 18

*RES 1: $0.7430 - Hourly support June 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7362 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7344 - 2018 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of $0.7682 has resulted in fresh 2018 &

12month lows adding weight to the case for a test of $0.7326 May 2017 lows.

Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls needing a close above

$0.7430 to gain breathing room and above $0.7481 to shift initial focus back to

$0.7527-0.7327 where 21 ($0.7536) & 55 ($0.7575) DMAs are noted. Bears now need

a close below $0.7326 to target $0.7160 2017 lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.576 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 95.296 - 2018 High June 19

*PRICE: 95.253 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.917 - Low June 20

*SUP 2: 94.534 - Low June 19

*SUP 3: 94.218 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA

(95.044) is less than ideal with the 100-WMA lurking just above. Bulls need a

close above the 100-WMA to initially target 96.617. Daily studies approaching

O/B is now an issue. Bears now need a close below 94.534 to gain breathing room

and below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back

to 93.193.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.014 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 2: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 1: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.948 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.933 - Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 2: 2.884 - Hourly support June 19 

*SUP 3: 2.853 - Low June 19 

*SUP 4: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: The break of 2.884 and the 100-DMA (2.893) has lacked follow

through with the close above the 21 (2.924) & 55 (2.936) DMAs buying bulls

breathing room. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3.014 to end bearish

hopes and initially target 2018 highs. The 2.853 support is now key. Bears need

a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and initially target

2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) $63.36 & $68.52 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $67.44 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $66.49 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $66.35 - High June 20

*PRICE: $65.64 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $64.79 - Low June 20 

*SUP 2: $64.23 - Low June 19 

*SUP 3: $63.98 - Low June 18 

*SUP 4: $63.36 - Daily bull channel base off Aug 30 low

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continues with oil remaining capped ahead of

layers of resistance. The $66.49-68.52 resistance region where the 21 & 55-DMAs

are located remains key. Bulls need a close above $68.52 to end bearish hopes

and shift initial focus back to $70.86-72.70. Bears now need a close below the

bull channel base ($63.36) off Aug 30 lows to reconfirm the bearish bias and

initially pressure $61.43.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Look For Weekly Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1275.3 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1270.0 - Low June 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $1265.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1258.9 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $1234.1 - 200-WMA, LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 4: $1214.0 - Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows continue with bears now looking for a weekly

close below the 100-WMA to add significant weight to the case for a test of the

200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows. Gold remains heavy with the Bollinger

base ($1269.2) the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $1284.1

to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to return pressure to $1310.5.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]