MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1734 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 1: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1711 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1671 Hourly support June 25 

*SUP 2: $1.1625 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: $1.1598 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: $1.1574 Hourly support June 21

*COMMENTARY: The dip Thursday left a double daily bottom in place around the

2018 low with the Bollinger base ($1.1521) remaining a concern for bears. Bears

need a close below 2018 lows to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100

($1.1435) & 200 ($1.1399) WMAs may support along the way. Bulls take comfort in

the close above the 21-DMA ($1.1678) but still need a close above the bear

channel top to shift focus back to $1.1854-1.1904.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3314

*RES 4: $1.3414 Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3350 Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 2: $1.3314 High June 22 

*RES 1: $1.3307 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3280 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3219 Low June 25 

*SUP 2: $1.3124 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.3099 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: $1.3072 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite fresh 2018 & 8mth lows the lack of follow through resulted

in a bullish key day reversal Thurs. Bulls take comfort in support emerging

ahead of the 100-WMA and key $1.2995-1.3072 support region. Bulls look for a

close above $1.3314 to shift initial focus back to $1.3446-1.3528. Bears need a

close below $1.3219 to gain breathing room and below $1.2995 to initially target

$1.2770 Aug lows. Correcting O/S studies are a concern for bears.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 2: Y110.31 Hourly support June 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y110.02 High June 25

*PRICE: Y109.44 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 2: Y108.70 Low June 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.16 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 having failed to gain

traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.21). Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to shift

initial focus to Y111.39-98. Bears need a close below Y109.01 to confirm a break

of the 55-DMA (Y109.38) and Bull channel base, initially pressuring

Y107.85-108.16 where the 100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back

to 2018 lows. Daily studies correcting from O/B have been weighing.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.84 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.81 High June 25

*RES 1: Y128.54 Hourly resistance June 25

*PRICE: Y128.19 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.84 Hourly resistance June 25 now support 

*SUP 2: Y127.36 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low 

*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: The pop above Y128.64 lacked follow through and was reversed with

the pair again looking a little offered. Bulls now need a close above Y128.81 to

gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA (Y129.99) once

again. Correcting O/S studies are a concern for bears who now need a close below

Y127.84 to retain focus on Y126.22 and the close below needed to add weight to

the case for a test of 2018 lows (Y124.61).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above 55-WMA To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8859 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8819 200-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8815 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8804 Hourly support June 26 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the Gbp0.8819 -59 resistance region where

the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls look for a close above the 55-WMA to

end bearish hopes and shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8967-0.9107. Bears now

need a close below Gbp0.8779 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.8694 to

confirm focus on tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 on a break lower.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7393

*RES 4: $0.7559 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7516 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 1: $0.7456 - High June 18

*PRICE: $0.7411 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7393 - Low June 25 

*SUP 2: $0.7342 - 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from last week's 2018 & 12mth

lows as daily studies correct from O/S levels. The close above $0.7430 Friday

saw bulls gain breathing room with a close above $0.7481 needed to shift initial

focus back to $0.7516-0.7327 where 21 ($0.7516) & 55 ($0.7559) DMAs are noted.

Support layers are accumulating with bears now needing a close below $0.7393 to

return initial pressure to 2018 lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.028 Support Key

*RES 4: 95.372 - Hourly resistance June 21a 

*RES 3: 95.040 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 2: 94.880 - High June 22 

*RES 1: 94.466 - Hourly resistance June 25

*PRICE: 94.208 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 2: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 3: 92.883 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA

(95.098) continued with the rejection around the 100-WMA (95.557) seeing a

bearish key day reversal Thursday and leaving the index offered. Bears look for

a close below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (94.239) and shift initial

focus to 93.193. Bulls now need a close above 94.466 to gain breathing room and

above the 100-WMA to initially target 96.617.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.853 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 2: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 1: 2.897 - High June 25

*PRICE: 2.874 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.853 - Low June 19 

*SUP 2: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to trouble key layers of resistance and in

particular 3.014 with the yield again looking offered. The 2.853 support remains

key. Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and

initially target 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls now need a

close above 2.950 to gain breathing room and above 3.014 to end bearish hopes

and initially target 2018 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $72.70 - Monthly High May 22 

*RES 3: $70.86 - Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: $69.44 - High June 25 

*RES 1: $68.52 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $68.24 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.75 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $66.23 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $66.10 - Hourly support June 22 

*SUP 4: $65.19 - Hourly resistance June 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA came to an end with an aggressive

rally Friday and bullish close that ended bearish hopes and sees immediate focus

now on $70.86-72.70. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls and limits

follow through. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room

and below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to $63.40-59 where a bull

channel base is located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1274.4 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1272.5 - High June 25

*PRICE: $1263.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1258.9 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $1237.6 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 4: $1234.0 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows defined last week with the weekly close

below the 100-WMA adding significant weight to the case for a test of the

200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows. The lack of follow through Thursday is a

concern for bears with the Bollinger base ($1259.0) proving problematic. Bulls

now need a close above the 100-WMA to gain breathing room and above $1292.1 to

return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]