MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1830 55-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1697 Hourly resistance July 2

*PRICE: $1.1652 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1600 High June 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1575 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the bear channel top off Apr 19 highs capping

last week with the $1.1723 resistance remaining key. Bulls still need a close

above $1.1723 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA ($1.1671) and bear channel top

($1.1677) initially targeting $1.1854-1.1901. Initial support is noted at

$1.1600 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below

$1.1506 to shift immediate focus to $1.1311.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3314 To Target 55 DMA & WMA

*RES 4: $1.3314 High June 22 

*RES 3: $1.3276 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3255 Hourly resistance June 26 

*RES 1: $1.3213 High June 29

*PRICE: $1.3177 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3164 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 2: $1.3121 High June 28 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3093 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 4: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth lows lacked follow through with cable flirting

with the 100-WMA ($1.3073) before rallying Friday. The rally bought bulls

breathing room but a close above $1.3314 remains needed to shift initial focus

back to $1.3445-1.3528 where the 55-WMA ($1.3445) & 55-DMA ($1.3483) are noted.

The $1.3121 support is key today with bears needing a close below to return

pressure to $1.2995-1.3048. Below $1.2995 initially targets $1.2770 Aug lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y112.04 To Target 200-WMA & 2018 High

*RES 4: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 1: Y111.18 High May 22

*PRICE: Y110.82 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.38 Low June 29 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.64 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair trades at 3wk highs with focus now on the Y111.39-112.04

region where May highs are noted. Bulls now look for a close above Y112.04 to

end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.22-44 where the 200-WMA

(Y113.22) is noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a

close below Y110.38 to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to return

pressure to Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA

*RES 4: Y130.45 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y130.02 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs

*RES 2: Y129.71 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y129.12 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.47 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.09 Hourly support July 2 

*SUP 2: Y128.49 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 3: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 4: Y126.98 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: The rally from the week's low saw pressure return to layers of

resistance Y129.71-130.45 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top off 2018

highs are situated. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA (Y130.45) to

initially target Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA (Y132.03) is noted. Bears now

need a close below Y128.49 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below Y126.22 to

confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8890 High June 29 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8869 Hourly resistance June 29

*PRICE: Gbp0.8844 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8830 Hourly support July 2 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8819 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through was lacking Thursday and Friday which is a

concern for bulls when combined with daily studies at modestly O/B levels and

the Bollinger top at Gbp0.8854. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8904 to

confirm traction above the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8861) and above 2018 highs to confirm

focus on Gbp0.9013-0.9107. Bears now look for a close below the 200-DMA to ease

bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7443-81 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7530 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15, 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 1: $0.7409 - High June 29

*PRICE: $0.7378 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7365 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7323 - 2018 Low June 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Wed saw bears shift focus to $0.7152 Dec

2016 monthly lows although the weekly bear channel base ($0.7216) may slow the

move. Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a bounce last week. In

saying that, bulls need a close above $0.7443 to gain breathing room and above

$0.7481 to shift initial focus back to $0.7530-0.7627 where the 55 DMA is

located. Above the 55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 100-WMA Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.600 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 95.546 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: 95.090 - Low June 28 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.705 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 2: 94.396 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.281 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs have lacked follow through with hesitation

around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

100-WMA (95.546) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key. Bears need a

close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and to shift focus

back to 92.198-93.193 where 55 & 200-DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.873-950 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21

*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly resistance June 27

*PRICE: 2.860 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around 2.950 saw pressure return to the 2.853

support resulting in a close below Wednesday that sees bears focused on

2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The Bollinger base (2.828) is the key

concern for bears and currently supports. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 2.873 to gain breathing room and above 2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050

resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below $72.18

*RES 4: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 3: $75.96 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $74.46 - 2018 High June 29 

*RES 1: $73.94 - Hourly resistance July 2

*PRICE: $73.23 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $72.51 - Hourly support July 2 

*SUP 2: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27 

*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($68.23) provided the base for gains that

have resulted in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs. Bulls focus on the $75.96-79.85 region

where the LT weekly bull channel top ($75.96) is situated. O/B studies and the

Bollinger top ($73.87) remain concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears now need

a close below $72.18 to gain breathing room and below $71.40 to shift initial

focus back to $69.44-70.02.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1262.7-1284.1 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1273.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1272.5 - High June 25 

*RES 2: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1260.1 - High June 27

*PRICE: $1251.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1245.3 - 2018 Low Jan 28 

*SUP 2: $1239.1 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows added weight to the bearish case targeting

tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.9. The Bollinger

base ($1240.8) and O/S daily studies looking to correct remain key concern for

bears. Bulls still look for a close above $1262.7 to gain breathing room and

above $1284.1 to return pressure to $1292.2-1310.5 where 55 & 200-DMAs are

noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]