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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • BIPARTISAN GROUP OF U.S. SENATORS SAYS IT HAS A DEAL ON INFRASTRUCTURE FRAMEWORK (RTRS)
  • ECB SAID TO DIFFER ON BOND-BUYING NEED IN THIN SUMMER MARKET (BBG)
  • THREE ECB POLICYMAKERS WANTED TO REDUCE PEPP'S PACE AT THURSDAY'S MEETING (RTRS SOURCES)
  • BORIS JOHNSON PONDERS FOUR-WEEK DELAY BEFORE END OF COVID RESTRICTIONS (TIMES)
  • EMMANUEL MACRON TO BLOCK NEW BREXIT TALKS ON NORTHERN IRELAND (TIMES)

Fig. 1: U.S. 10- & 30-Year Tsy Yields (%)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg


UK

CORONAVIRUS: Ministers are considering delaying the end of coronavirus restrictions for a month to give businesses "certainty" and allow more time for people to receive two vaccinations, The Times has been told. Plans are being discussed for either a two-week or a four-week delay to the final easing of restrictions on June 21, if the Indian variant of the coronavirus continues to lead to a significant rise in infections and hospital admissions. The variant now accounts for nine in ten cases and health leaders called yesterday for delay to prevent hospitals filling up with unvaccinated patients. Ministers are concerned that a two-week delay would not give businesses the certainty they need because it might have to be extended. (The Times)

CORONAVIRUS: Prime Minister Boris Johnson is poised to delay the final stage of pandemic lockdown easing in England, in a blow to hospitality and entertainment businesses that want to see social-distancing rules dropped. Johnson is due to announce on Monday whether he will lift remaining curbs, imposed in January to contain a wave of infections, on June 21. (BBG)

BREXIT: Boris Johnson sought to play down any differences with Washington over the way Brexit could affect Northern Ireland after talks with Joe Biden at the G7 summit, as he called the US president "a breath of fresh air". Speaking to TV reporters after bilateral talks with Biden at the summit venue in Cornwall, where according to Downing Street the pair discussed Covid and the climate emergency, as well as Northern Ireland, Johnson called the discussions "very good". (Guardian)

BREXIT: President Macron warned Boris Johnson last night that he would veto any attempt to renegotiate the Northern Ireland Brexit deal. In comments before meeting the prime minister today at the G7 summit in Cornwall, the French leader said it was "not serious" to reopen the agreement. Macron made it clear that he would block any attempt to revise arrangements in Northern Ireland or extend "grace periods", including the trade in sausages, at the end of this month. "I think it's not serious to want to review in July what we finalised after years of debate and work in December," he said. "This is not an issue between the UK and France, it is an issue between Europeans and the UK." "We have a protocol under which there is this Northern Ireland protocol and we have a trade deal. It has been painfully discussed for years, and discussed, let me remind you, on the initiative of the British who decided to leave." (The Times)

BREXIT: The UK has today agreed its annual catch limits for the fishing industry with the EU, in a deal which the government said was worth £333m. As a result of leaving the bloc, Britain will have to renegotiate its fishing quotas independently every year. UK fisherman will be able to catch around 160,000 tonnes of fish in 2021, up 26,000 tonnes on 2020's allocation. (City AM)

EUROPE

ECB: European Central Bank policy makers differed in their Thursday meeting over how much bond-buying would be needed when liquidity in financial markets is thinner during the summer, according to officials familiar with the debate. The Governing Council session also saw some members raise the prospect of upside risks to inflation in the euro zone, the officials said. The people asked not to be identified because the meeting was private. On Thursday, the Governing Council decided that emergency bond-buying would continue at a "significantly higher pace" than the 14 billion euros ($17 billion) a week at the start of the year -- despite substantial upward revisions to the economic outlook. (BBG)

ECB: Sources told Reuters three of the 25 members of the Governing Council wanted to reduce the pace of PEPP at the meeting, citing a better outlook for growth and inflation. (RTRS)

FRANCE: MNI INTERVIEW: Talk Of More Stimulus Premature-French Official

  • A rebound in consumer spending means France's economy may not need an additional stimulus package proposed for later this year, but the government will be on the lookout for labour market bottlenecks, the French Treasury's chief economist told MNI. France will decide in September whether to boost its EUR100 billion stimulus, and will do so if consumption does not rebound far enough or if the labour market continues to decline, Agnes Benassy-Quere said in an interview, in which she said European Union nations would only gradually be able to reduce excess debt after the Covid crisis - on MNI MainWire and email now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

FINLAND/RATINGS: The credit profile of Finland (Aa1 stable) is supported by the country's knowledge-based economy and strong innovation capabilities, the authorities' commitment to fiscal discipline and a high quality institutional framework, Moody's Investors Service said in an annual report today. Its main credit challenges include the reversal of last year's 10 percentage point increase in the government debt burden, especially as its ageing population poses longer-term risks to fiscal sustainability and growth potential. "The stable outlook on Finland's sovereign rating reflects the government's strong debt-affordability metrics and our expectation that the authorities remain committed to post-crisis fiscal consolidation," said Steffen Dyck, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Credit Officer and the report's author. "Our view is supported by Finland's strong institutional and governance framework, which has contributed to the successful implementation of structural reforms in areas like pensions and the labour market in recent years." (Moody's)

RATINGS: Potential sovereign rating reviews of note scheduled for after hours on Friday include:

  • Fitch on Spain (current rating: A-; Outlook Stable)
  • Moody's on Austria (current rating: Aa1; Outlook Stable) & the Netherlands (current rating: Aaa; Outlook Stable)
  • S&P on Slovenia (current rating: AA-; Outlook Stable)
  • DBRS Morningstar on Slovenia (current rating: A (high), Stable Trend)

U.S.

ECONOMY: The net worth of U.S. households climbed to new heights as 2021 began and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic began to fade. Thanks largely to a surge in the stock market, the total balance sheet for households and nonprofits rose to $136.9 trillion in the first quarter, a 3.8% gain from the end of 2020, according to Federal Reserve data released Thursday. (CNBC)

ECONOMY: MNI BRIEF: Yellen Warns of Global K-Shaped Recovery US Avoids

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Thursday said she is confident that America has avoided a K-shaped recovery, but warned many low-income nations appear on track for that outcome unless rich countries support them. "When I took office, one of my greatest concerns was a K-shaped recovery from the pandemic; a recovery where high-income households rebounded quickly - or even emerged better-off - while low- and middle-income families suffered for a very long time," she said about the American economy. "We can be confident now that's not going to happen" - on MNI MainWire and email now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

FISCAL: A bipartisan group of 10 U.S. senators said on Thursday it had reached agreement on a framework for a proposed infrastructure spending bill that would not include any tax increases. The group of five Republicans and five Democrats gave no details, but a source familiar with the deal said it would cost $974 billion over five years and $1.2 trillion over eight years, and includes $579 billion in new spending. The senators said they were discussing their approach with their colleagues and the White House, and they were optimistic about getting broad support. "Our group ... has worked in good faith and reached a bipartisan agreement on a realistic, compromise framework to modernize our nation's infrastructure and energy technologies," the lawmakers said in a statement. "This investment would be fully paid for and not include tax increases." (RTRS)

FISCAL: In a statement Thursday, deputy White House press secretary Andrew Bates said White House staff members were briefed earlier in the day by Democratic senators working on infrastructure. "The president appreciates the senators' work to advance critical investments we need to create good jobs, prepare for our clean energy future and compete in the global economy," he said. "Questions need to be addressed, particularly around the details of both policy and pay-fors, among other matters." Bates said senior White House staff members and other aides will work with the Senate group "to get answers to those questions." (NBC)

FISCAL: The Treasury Department estimates that the difference between how much Americans owe in taxes and how much they actually pay will balloon to $7 trillion over the next decade. In prepared remarks, Deputy Assistant Secretary Mark Mazur told Congress on Thursday that the so-called tax gap will only worsen over the next several years without more funding from lawmakers. He added that the estimate of the gross tax gap is around $580 billion for 2019 alone. (CNBC)

FISCAL: The U.S. budget deficit passed the $2 trillion mark in May amid a continuing flow of fiscal largesse to a rapidly expanding economy, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. Government red ink for the month was just below $132 billion, the lowest monthly shortfall of the year but still enough to put the total deficit at $2.063 trillion. (CNBC)

CORONAVIRUS: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday it will no longer require travelers to wear masks in outdoor transit hubs and in outdoor spaces on ferries, buses and trolleys, due to the lower risk of coronavirus transmission outdoors. (RTRS)

CORONAVIRUS: Children need to be vaccinated against Covid-19, a top advisor to the Food and Drug Administration on children's vaccines told the agency Thursday. "It just seems silly to think that we're not going to have to include children as part of that," said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and advisor to the FDA. "They can suffer and be hospitalized and occasionally die." (CNBC)

CORONAVIRUS: Moderna says it has asked the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to expand the emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine to adolescents aged 12 to 17. If granted, it would likely dramatically expand the number of shots available to middle and high school students ahead of the new school year. (Nikkei)

CORONAVIRUS: Johnson & Johnson's vaccine can be kept in a refrigerator for four and a half months, extending the shot's shelf life by 50%. the U.S. Food and Drug Administration decided. As doses languish amid a slowing U.S. immunization campaign, concern has been growing that some shots could spoil before they are used. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: The U.S. government has halted new shipments of the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine, according to state and federal health officials, one of several steps federal agencies are taking that could help clear a backlog of unused doses before they expire. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has stopped making available the one-dose shot to states, the state and federal health officials said. The stoppage is believed to be temporary, some of these officials said. Health officials from Maryland, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Michigan, Illinois and other states said they haven't been able to order new supplies of J&J doses in recent weeks. Some also said they have sufficient supply of the vaccine. (WSJ)

EQUITIES: Melvin Capital and Light Street Capital, two US hedge funds hard hit by a rally in stocks popular with retail investors in January, have suffered further losses in May. Melvin, the highest-profile casualty of January's meme stock rally, lost another 4 per cent last month, say people familiar with their performance. That takes the fund's losses this year to about 44.7 per cent, the people said. The S&P 500 index of US stocks rose 0.6 per cent last month and is up almost 12 per cent in the first five months of the year. Hedge fund losses from betting against five popular meme stocks — GameStop, Bed Bath & Beyond, AMC, BlackBerry and Clover Health — total about $6bn since the start of May, according to the data firm Ortex Analytics. Peter Hillerberg, Ortex's co-founder, said funds had recently reduced their short positions in meme stocks but that short interest remained "at very high levels". (FT)

OTHER

GLOBAL TRADE: Embattled Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei Technologies has opened a new cybersecurity center that allows independent parties to inspect its wares. (Nikkei)

GLOBAL TRADE: The UK and the US agreed to deepen ties in science and tech innovation, as the West looks to stave off growing competition from China. As part of the revised Atlantic Charter agreed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and President Joe Biden today, the two sides vowed to form a new partnership to create jobs and protect the security of their citizens. (City AM)

U.S./CHINA: The Biden administration's top commerce official told her Chinese counterpart Washington is concerned about Beijing's industrial policies, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, the latest high-level exchange as the countries spar over disagreements. The department said U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's phone call with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao also included discussion of Washington's view on "the need to level the playing field for U.S. companies in China and the importance of protecting U.S. technology from unauthorized users." China's commerce ministry said separately that the two officialsagreed to keep lines of communication open. (RTRS)

U.S./CHINA: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday she was concerned that Chinese lenders could benefit from an international debt relief initiative aimed at poor countries. In April, G20 countries including the United States agreed to extend until December a moratorium on debt interest payments for the poorest nations, amid fears they will lag behind in the global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Chinese financial institutions are among the top lenders to lower-income countries, and Yellen told a House Appropriations subcommittee that she aims to ensure the relief -- meant to help poor countries spend to revitalize their economies after the pandemic -- doesn't end up in China's hands. (AFP)

U.S./CHINA: House Democrats are maneuvering to quickly pass legislation to bolster the semiconductor industry and support U.S. innovation by adding parts of a Senate bill passed this week to an existing House measure, aiming tocounter the economic challenge from China. Under the strategy being considered, the House Science Committee would amend a measure it's set to begin working on next week to wrap in elements of the $250 billion package that cleared the Senate in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, according to two people familiar with the negotiations. The goal is to win passage of a version of the legislation by August, an outcome that would hand President Joe Biden a major bipartisan victory. The Senate measure calls for $52 billion in funding to boost U.S. output of computer chips after a shortage that slowed production in the automotive sector and other industries. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: Pfizer CEO Bourla touted that no variant has yet evaded the Pfizer vaccines protection, but said that in case one does, the company has a process to quickly develop an updated vaccine. "We have built a process to develop within 100 days a new vaccine if needed, God forbid," Bourla said. (The Hill)

CORONAVIRUS: President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will begin shipping a half-billion donated doses of Pfizer Inc. coronavirus vaccines to countries in "dire need" in August, making good on a promise to lead the global campaign against the pandemic. Biden said Thursday the U.S. purchase and donation of Pfizer's shots would be the largest of any single country so far, and that the vaccines would come "with no strings attached" -- veiled criticism of Russia and China, which he's accused of using vaccines as leverage in their foreign policy. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the U.K. will start donating vaccines to countries in need within weeks, with at least 100 million surplus doses set to be distributed in the next year. Johnson's announcement comes after U.S. President Joe Biden promised to donate half a billion Pfizer Inc. vaccines to 92 lower income countries and the African Union. Group of Seven leaders meeting from Friday in the U.K. are expected to collectively provide a billion extra doses with the aim of inoculating 80% of the world's adult population and ending the pandemic in 2022. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: French President Emmanuel Macron is welcoming as "great news" the decision of the United States to donate 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to the poorest countries. In a news conference Thursday, Macron said, "I think the European Union needs to have at least the same level of ambition as the United States," and be able to make a similar announcement. (AP)

JAPAN: The Tokyo Metropolitan Government is planning to cancel all Olympic public viewings in the capital, Jiji reports, citing several unidentified people. Tokyo will consider utilizing the sites for vaccinating the public. (BBG)

BOK: South Korea will prepare for an "orderly" exit from the pandemic-era monetary easing policy if an economic recovery remains solid, the head of the Bank of Korea (BOK) said Friday. It was the second time in a month that BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol hinted at the normalization of monetary policy amid market concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve's tapering. "If our economy is expected to continue its solid pace of recovery, we will orderly normalize the current easing of monetary policy at an appropriate time," Lee told a meeting to mark the 71st anniversary of the BOK's foundation. The timing of normalization will depend on the pace of economic recovery, the situation of COVID-19 and risks of financial imbalances, Lee said. Volatility in financial markets at home and abroad is likely to grow as accelerating inflation could force central banks around the world to withdraw their pandemic-era stimulus measures, Lee said. (Yonhap)

BOC: MNI: BOC Says Faster Than Expected CPI is Still Transitory

  • Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Tim Lane said Thursday that while inflation over the next several months will be faster than expected and may breach the top of the central bank's target band of 3%, the pressure is transitory. Slack in the economy will slow things down later this year, Lane said in the text of a speech, though over the next few months CPI gains will exceed the BOC's April projection, which called for a 2.9% average in the second quarter. The remarks came hours after the U.S. reported 5% CPI inflation for May, and Fed officials have also called such pressures temporary - on MNI MainWire and email now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

BOC: MNI BRIEF: BOC Governor Macklem to Testify at Senate June 16

  • Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to testify on June 16 at the Senate banking committee - on MNI MainWire and email now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

CANADA: Albertans who received their first doses of COVID-19 vaccine in April can start booking their second shots immediately, Premier Jason Kenney announced Thursday. The move accelerates the previous plan, which had been to open bookings on Monday for those Albertans. (CBC)

BRAZIL: Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro said on Thursday that the health minister was preparing a measure to no longer require face masks for people who have been vaccinated for the coronavirus or previously infected. Bolsonaro, who has opposed lockdowns and social distancing despite his country having the second-deadliest coronavirus outbreak, said in a speech that quarantines should be only for infected people. "They are useful for people who are infected," he said, adding: "Quarantines are for those who are infected." Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga said Bolsonaro has asked him for a study on the use of masks in Brazil. The minister, however, testified this week before a Senate commission of inquiry that masks should be used to prevent transmission. He also contradicted Bolsonaro on the use of hydroxychloroquine, saying there was no evidence the anti-malaria drug is effective in treating COVID-19 patients. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: President Joe Biden plans to address the strained US-Russia diplomatic relationship when he meets President Vladimir Putin next week with the hope that the two leaders can agree to send their ambassadors back to Washington and Moscow after months with no senior diplomat being present in either country, according to three sources familiar with the plans. Russia's ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov was recalled from Washington about three months ago after Biden called Putin a killer and US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan left Moscow almost two months ago after Russia suggested he return to Washington for consultations. Not having an ambassador in either country has made conducting basic diplomacy even more difficult at a time when relations are already severely strained. (CNN)

IRAN: The United States said on Thursday it had removed sanctions on three former Iranian officials and two companies that previously traded Iranian petrochemicals, a step one U.S. official called routine but that could show U.S. readiness to ease sanctions when justified. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the U.S. official said that the moves by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) were unrelated to efforts to revive Iranian and U.S. compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. "Today, OFAC and the Department of State are also lifting sanctions on three former Government of Iran officials, and two companies formerly involved in the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of Iranian petrochemical products," the Treasury said in a statement. It said the delisting reflected "a verified change in behavior or status" of those sanctioned and "demonstrate the U.S. government's commitment to lifting sanctions in the event of (such) a change." A Treasury spokesperson said the three individuals had established "that they are no longer in their positions within entities affiliated with the Government of Iran," adding there was no reason to maintain sanctions on them. The oil market briefly plunged after being spooked by media reports suggesting sanctions were lifted on Iranian oil officials, showing the potential impact of additional Iranian barrels if a deal is struck and sanctions lifted. (RTRS)

MIDDLE EAST: The United States on Thursday announced sanctions on what it called members of a smuggling network that generates tens millions of dollars for Yemen's Houthis, pressuring the Iran-aligned movement to accept a ceasefire and peace talks. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has sought to advance a U.N. effort to ease Yemen's dire humanitarian crisis and end the war pitting the Houthis against the government and a Saudi-led coalition. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated a call for the Houthis to accept a nationwide ceasefire and a resumption of talks on a political settlement to the seven-year-old conflict. "The United States will continue to apply pressure to the Houthis, including through targeted sanctions, to advance those goals," he said in a statement. (RTRS)

OIL: Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says his government is working on a legal strategy to recoup losses from the failed Keystone XL pipeline, including with a potential lawsuit under the North American free-trade agreement that could happen as early as next month. (Globe & Mail)

CHINA

NPLS: China should actively prepare for a resurgence of non-performing loans and urge banks to categorize their assets and increase provisions, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing said at a forum, Caixin reported. Some loans borrowed by SMEs during the pandemic will eventually be non-performing, some local government financing vehicles have difficulties making payments, defaults by large companies have increased, while bubbles have emerged in regional housing markets, Guo was reported as saying. China should also strictly prevent the resurgence of shadow banking and resolutely rectify all illegal security offerings, Guo was cited as saying. (MNI)

CREDIT: China's monetary and credit environment remains moderately loose, helping to support the economic recovery, as the two-year average M2 growth and new yuan loans are still significantly higher than in 2019, the 21st Century Business Herald reported citing Zhou Maohua, an analyst at China Everbright Bank. Though May M2 was at a low level of 8.3% following April's near-two-year low of 8.1%, it was distorted due to last year's pandemic, the newspaper said. Lending support to the real economy is strong as new yuan loans in May exceeded April's, the newspaper said. Though the growth rate of aggregated financing fell to 11% by the end of May, it has maintained above 11% for 15 months, with a relatively healthy financing structure, the newspaper said citing Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities. (MNI)

CORONAVIRUS: More than 10% of Covid-19 patients in Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong Province, have become critically ill – a higher percentage than in previous outbreaks in China, a local health official said at a media briefing, the Global Times reported. Guan Xiangdong, a specialist with the local Covid-19 medical team, said he believed the reason was more virulent Covid strains. Many of the patients are senior citizens whose condition deteriorates quickly after the onset of symptoms, he said. (BBG)

CORONAVIRUS: China can may issue vaccine passports by the end of this year and could promote mutual recognition with other governments after vaccinating most of its population, said Chinese ethical expert Lei Ruipeng who is also a WHO ethics unit member. (Global Times)

OVERNIGHT DATA

JAPAN Q2 BSI LARGE ALL INDUSTRY -4.7% Q/Q; MEDIAN -5.5%; Q1 -4.5%
JAPAN Q2 BSI LARGE M'FING -1.4% Q/Q; Q1 +1.6%

NEW ZEALAND MAY BUSINESSNZ M'FING PMI 58.6; APR 58.3

BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that "the two major sub-index values of Production (65.3) and New Orders (63.7) remain the cornerstones of ongoing expansion in the sector. In contrast, Employment (51.5) continues to slip into lower expansion, while Finished Stocks (52.4) and Deliveries of Raw Materials (53.5) remain above the 50-point mark." "Globally, manufacturing activity continues to expand at a robust pace, culminating in an 11-year high for May. However, this has led to upwards pressure on input prices across most countries, including New Zealand, given comments from respondents outlining increased costs of raw materials." BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert stated that "the PMI readings on Finished Stocks and Deliveries of Raw Materials for May appeared reasonable. However, they were also still clearly lagging as components in the PMI. If there was any doubt about supply-side factors being a major problem, this was put paid to by respondents' comments to May's PMI." (BNZ)

SOUTH KOREA MAY EXPORT PRICE INDEX +12.3% Y/Y; APR +11.1%
SOUTH KOREA MAY EXPORT PRICE INDEX +1.5% M/M; APR +2.6%
SOUTH KOREA MAY IMPORT PRICE INDEX +13.8% Y/Y; APR +15.3%
SOUTH KOREA MAY IMPORT PRICE INDEX +2.6% M/M; APR -0.2%

CHINA MARKETS

PBOC INJECTS CNY10BN VIA OMOS FRI; LIQUIDITY UNCHANGED

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY10 billion via 7-day reverse repos with the rate unchanged at 2.2% on Friday. The operation left liquidity unchanged given it netted off CNY10 billion reverse repos maturing today, according to Wind Information.

  • The operation aims to keep liquidity reasonable and ample, the PBOC said on its website.
  • The 7-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) increased to 2.2000% at 09:24 am local time from the close of 2.1193% on Thursday.
  • The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index closed at 42 on Thursday vs 36 on Wednesday.

PBOC SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 6.3856 FRI VS 6.3972

People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.3856 on Friday, compared with the 6.3972 set on Thursday.

MARKETS

SNAPSHOT: U.S. Fiscal & Brexit Matters Headline Into The Weekend

Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:

  • Nikkei 225 up 17.55 points at 28987.81
  • ASX 200 up 17.102 points at 7319.8
  • Shanghai Comp. down 9.041 points at 3601.818
  • JGB 10-Yr future up 9 ticks at 151.99, yield down 2bp at 0.035%
  • Aussie 10-Yr future up 0.1 tick at 98.568, yield down 0.4bp at 1.487%
  • U.S. 10-Yr future +0-04+ at 133-02+, yield up 0.51bp at 1.439%
  • WTI crude down $0.2 at $70.04, Gold up $1.94 at $1900.48
  • USD/JPY up 6 pips at Y109.40
  • BIPARTISAN GROUP OF U.S. SENATORS SAYS IT HAS A DEAL ON INFRASTRUCTURE FRAMEWORK (RTRS)
  • ECB SAID TO DIFFER ON BOND-BUYING NEED IN THIN SUMMER MARKET (BBG)
  • THREE ECB POLICYMAKERS WANTED TO REDUCE PEPP'S PACE AT THURSDAY'S MEETING (RTRS SOURCES)
  • BORIS JOHNSON PONDERS FOUR-WEEK DELAY BEFORE END OF COVID RESTRICTIONS (TIMES)
  • EMMANUEL MACRON TO BLOCK NEW BREXIT TALKS ON NORTHERN IRELAND (TIMES)

BOND SUMMARY: Plenty To Note Moving Into The Weekend

The latest fiscal headlines from the U.S. pointing to an agreement between a bipartisan group of Senators re: infrastructure have done little for the market, with the blessing of both party leaderships still required and questions from the White House emerging (although the latter has expressed a willingness to work with the group). T-Notes have stuck to a 0-04 range overnight dealing just off of best levels at typing, last +0-04+ at 133-02+ on decent enough volume of just over 103K, with cash Tsys trading roughly 0.5-1.0bp cheaper across the curve. Flow was headlined by a 5.0K block seller of FVU1.

  • JGB futures have built on their overnight rally but trade a little off of best levels, with JBM1 now trading +15 on the day. Cash JGBs have richened across the curve, with focus on the offshore market impetus and then the local spill over. The 5- to 10-Year sector outperforms, richening by a little over 2.0bp, with 10-Year yields moving decisively below 5bp for the first time since late January. Long end swap spread tightening has been evident for a second day, with signs of foreign receiving showing up in the JSCC/LCH basis for 30-Year swaps. Broader news flow remains light. Locally, speculation in the local press re: spectators at the Olympics continues to do the rounds, while the latest quarterly BSI survey failed to impact markets.
  • Outside of an early blip lower at the Sydney re-open there has been little to note for the Aussie bond space, with the tail end of the futures rolls taking most of the focus ahead of an elongated weekend. YM -0.4, XM +0.3 at typing, while cash ACGB trade sees the major benchmark yields trade either side of unchanged across the curve. The release of the latest weekly AOFM issuance slate threw up nothing in the way of notable surprises. Participants are already looking to several key risk events slated for next week, namely the release of the RBA's June meeting minutes, the latest labour market report and an address from RBA Governor Lowe (titled "From Recovery to Expansion").

JGBS AUCTION: Japanese MOF sells Y4.8989tn 3-Month Bills:

The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y4.8989tn 3-Month Bills:
  • Average Yield -0.1022% (prev. -0.1018%)
  • Average Price 100.0255 (prev. 100.0254)
  • High Yield: -0.0982% (prev. -0.0982%)
  • Low Price 100.0245 (prev. 100.0245)
  • % Allotted At High Yield: 6.5779% (prev. 51.0946%)
  • Bid/Cover: 3.771x (prev. 3.479x)

AUSSIE BONDS: AOFM Weekly Issuance Slate

The AOFM has released its weekly issuance schedule:

  • On Thursday 17 June it plans to sell A$1.0bn of the 24 September 2021 Note & A$500mn of the 22 October 2021 Note.
  • On Friday 18 June it plans to sell A$1.0bn of the 1.75% 21 November 2032 Bond.

EQUITIES: Muted

Equity markets in the Asia-Pac region are mixed with moves in either direction muted. Bourses in Japan and mainland China are lower while Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea are higher, the latter after strong export data. Australia also seeing some gains with iron ore higher. In the US futures are marginally higher with markets still digesting yesterday's jump in US inflation and assessing just how much is transitory.

OIL: Retreats From Key Level

Oil is lower in Asia-Pac trade on Friday, WTI dropping away from $70/bbl after retaking the level earlier in the week. WTI is down $0.57 from settlement levels at $69.72/bbl, Brent is down $0.61 at $71.91/bbl; the benchmarks are on track to record losses this week. There are positive demand cues with an OPEC+ report on Thursday predicting demand will rise by around 5m bpd in the second half of 2021, while estimates of spare capacity could be lowered.

GOLD: U.S. CPI Dynamic Forces Re-Test Of $1,900/oz

The lower U.S. real yield/higher breakeven backdrop in the wake of yesterday's stronger than expected U.S. CPI print supported bullion, although bulls still haven't managed to force a clean break above $1,900/oz, with spot trading just shy of that level at typing. Participants now switch focus to next week's FOMC decision.

FOREX: Mixed Asia-Pac Session, DXY Extends Losses

The Antipodeans sold off in muted Asia-Pac trade, which saw little in the way of notable headline catalysts. JPY also landed near the bottom of the G10 pile, while the greenback seemed poised for its first weekly loss this month.

  • GBP faced some pressure as reports re: potential delay to the UK's reopening plans continued to do the rounds.
  • NOK traded on a firmer footing, even as WTI slipped back below $70/bbl. It Scandinavian peers rose in tandem.
  • The PBOC set it central USD/CNY mid-point at CNY6.3856, 9 pips above sell-side estimates. USD/CNH lost some altitude, but yesterday's trough remained intact.
  • Focus turns to the UK's monthly economic activity data & preliminary U.S. Univ. of Mich. Survey. Central bank speaker slate features ECB's Holzmann & Knot, as well as BoE's Bailey, Ramsden & Cunliffe.

FOREX OPTIONS: Expiries for Jun11 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

  • EUR/USD: $1.2100(E2.2bln), $1.2150-55(E2.1bln), $1.2175-90(E768mln), $1.2200(E1.7bln-EUR puts)
  • USD/JPY: Y108.90-109.10($2.2bln-USD puts), Y109.75-80($1.2bln-USD puts), Y110.00($1.6bln), Y110.50-60($1.0bln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.7740-50(A$796mln), $0.7800(A$557mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.2035($550mln), C$1.2080-90($2.7bln-USD puts), C$1.2150($1.2bln-USD puts)
  • USD/CNY: Cny6.3700($950mln), Cny6.4000-10($815mln), Cny6.45($830mln)

UP TODAY (Times GMT/Local)