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(U2) Off Lows, But Still Fragile


Another Round Of Richening


(U2) More Stable But Still Fragile

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MNI: EUROZONE DATA: Trade Balance (Apr 2019) Preview - 10:00 BST
- Trade Bal: Bloomberg Consensus: EUR 16.3bn (sa); Prev (Mar): EUR17.9bn (sa)
- Exports: Prev (Mar): 0.9% m/m (sa), 3.1% y/y (nsa)
- Imports: Prev (Mar): 2.5% m/m (sa), 6.0% y/y (nsa)
- Markets look for a further contraction in the trade surplus after it narrowed
in Mar for the first time in six months 
- Country-level data supports market expectations
- Indeed, while the French trade deficit narrowed in Apr and the Portuguese
trade deficit remained unchanged... 
- ... the German and Dutch trade surpluses both declined...
- ... as exports to the UK plunged following a surge in shipments in Q1, driven
by stockpiling ahead of the original Mar 29 Brexit deadline
- Looking ahead, the EZ trade surplus is unlikely to start expanding
substantially again in the near-term, with the recent softening of survey-based
export order indices pointing to a weak performance for exports ahead

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