Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight - November 2023
MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight - November 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Eurozone flash inflation for November printed at an unrounded +2.41% (vs +2.7% cons; +2.90% prior), the first time the headline has been below 2.5% since July 2021. Core (ex-energy/food) was +3.57% (vs +3.9% cons; +4.18% prior) / -0.59% M/M (vs +0.22% prior).
- HICP came in below expectations for all 5 of the largest Eurozone economies, while the Eurozone-wide figures were below even the lowest analysts’ estimates (of 41 in the Bloomberg survey).
- The ECB's seasonally-adjusted figures showed sequential monthly headline HICP at -0.26% M/M, vs +0.06% prior - marking the first decline since May and the lowest reading since December 2022.
- Looking at 3M/3M inflation momentum based on the seasonally-adjusted HICP series, there was likewise disinflationary progress evident across the board. Headline Eurozone HICP momentum as calculated by MNI declined to a three-month low 3.03% 3M/3M SAAR (vs 4.49% prior) after an uptick in October.
- The surprisingly low prints, and the soft details of the reports, spurred some analysts to bring forward their expectations for the start of ECB cuts in 2024, with market pricing for reductions deepening (now 115bp priced for 2024 vs 80bp at the week’s open).
- The data poses further downside risks to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts which are likely to be revised downward in the December round.
- Our review of November's preliminary Eurozone inflation data includes breakdowns and analysis of the national inflation prints, and some sell-side reactions.
FOR FULL PDF ANALYSIS:
Source: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok