MNI BRIEF: Japan Sept Tokyo Core CPI Rises 2.0% Vs. Aug 2.4%

MNI: BANXICO RATE CUT DECISION 4-1; HEATH VOTED TO HOLD

MNI: BANXICO CUTS RATES BY 25 BPS TO 10.50%

MNI CNB WATCH: More Easing, But Tight Policy Still Needed

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, September 26

MNI BRIEF: China GDP Growth Likely 4.8% In Q3 - BOC

Japan Tokyo Sep Core CPI +2.0% Y/Y

MNI JAPAN SEPT TOKYO CORE CPI +2.0% Y/Y; AUG +2.4%

MNI BRIEF: Canada Business Closure Rate Highest Since Pandemic

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview - Sep '24: Key To October Cut

Core and services inflation are expected to remain steady at 2.8% Y/Y and 4.1% respectively.
BundesbankCentral Bank NewsHomepageEuropean Central BankInflation InsightEurozoneGermanyCEEMEAGlobalStoryRegion

MNI (LONDON) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Eurozone September flash inflation round might be the cycle’s first to move the needle between a 25bp rate cut and a hold at an upcoming ECB meeting.
  • Heightened concerns around the Eurozone growth outlook following weak September flash PMIs have seemingly lowered the bar to an October cut.
  • As such, a downward surprise in core – and especially services – inflation may be enough to tempt some Governing Council members into joining the dovish contingent that is already pushing for such a move behind the scenes.
  • Based on the analyst previews we have seen, headline inflation is expected to ease to 1.9% Y/Y in September. This would be the first time the annual HICP rate comes in below the ECB’s 2% target since June 2021.  
  • Core and services inflation are expected to remain steady at 2.8% Y/Y and 4.1% respectively. With temporary effects at play, this should put heightened focus on the ECB’s seasonally adjusted data, which will strip out at least some of the noise.
  • Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Spanish, and Italian national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.

PDF analysis here:

Keep reading...Show less
199 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

MNI (LONDON) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Eurozone September flash inflation round might be the cycle’s first to move the needle between a 25bp rate cut and a hold at an upcoming ECB meeting.
  • Heightened concerns around the Eurozone growth outlook following weak September flash PMIs have seemingly lowered the bar to an October cut.
  • As such, a downward surprise in core – and especially services – inflation may be enough to tempt some Governing Council members into joining the dovish contingent that is already pushing for such a move behind the scenes.
  • Based on the analyst previews we have seen, headline inflation is expected to ease to 1.9% Y/Y in September. This would be the first time the annual HICP rate comes in below the ECB’s 2% target since June 2021.  
  • Core and services inflation are expected to remain steady at 2.8% Y/Y and 4.1% respectively. With temporary effects at play, this should put heightened focus on the ECB’s seasonally adjusted data, which will strip out at least some of the noise.
  • Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Spanish, and Italian national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.

PDF analysis here:

Keep reading...Show less