MNI Fed Preview December 2022: Analyst Views
MNI Fed Preview December 2022: Analyst Views
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
All sell-side analysts among the 33 whose previews/notes MNI read expect the FOMC to hike by 50bp at the December meeting. (NOTE: Full MNI FOMC Preview is available here)
SEE PDF LINK BELOW:
FedPrevDecember2022-AnalystOutlook.pdf
- Most focus is on the 2023 median rate dot in the December Summary of Economic Projections. Opinion is fairly evenly split over what the 2023 median will be: of the analysts who have published their Dot Plot expectations, 9 expect 4.9%; 14 expect 5.1%. Nobody expects a median other than those two.
- Most expect little to no change in the December FOMC statement; some (Barclays, JPM, Morgan Stanley) expect we could see a change to the "ongoing increases" guidance in a direction that suggests the peak in rates is nearing. Though this would probably be offset by some added hawkish language as well (others who don't expect a change to "ongoing" see potential for the statement to add that restrictive policy is needed for "some time").
- Analysts’ peak rate expectations range from 4.6% (Morgan Stanley, SEB) to 5.6% (Nomura).
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