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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Fed Preview December 2022: Analyst Views
MNI Fed Preview December 2022: Analyst Views
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
All sell-side analysts among the 33 whose previews/notes MNI read expect the FOMC to hike by 50bp at the December meeting. (NOTE: Full MNI FOMC Preview is available here)
SEE PDF LINK BELOW:
FedPrevDecember2022-AnalystOutlook.pdf
- Most focus is on the 2023 median rate dot in the December Summary of Economic Projections. Opinion is fairly evenly split over what the 2023 median will be: of the analysts who have published their Dot Plot expectations, 9 expect 4.9%; 14 expect 5.1%. Nobody expects a median other than those two.
- Most expect little to no change in the December FOMC statement; some (Barclays, JPM, Morgan Stanley) expect we could see a change to the "ongoing increases" guidance in a direction that suggests the peak in rates is nearing. Though this would probably be offset by some added hawkish language as well (others who don't expect a change to "ongoing" see potential for the statement to add that restrictive policy is needed for "some time").
- Analysts’ peak rate expectations range from 4.6% (Morgan Stanley, SEB) to 5.6% (Nomura).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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