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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
We've published an update of our Jul 26 Fed preview which now includes sell-side analyst expectations (PDF link here - starting Page 29)
- No sell-side analysts whose previews were seen by MNI expect the FOMC to cut rates at the July meeting, with an overwhelming consensus that the Committee will begin easing in September.
- We saw only one exception: BofA sees the first cut only in December (25bp).
- While – again with the exception of BofA - the majority of analysts see 50bp of cuts this year (mostly Sept and Dec), a handful see 75bp of reductions in 2024. For 2025, though, opinions differ widely.
- Some see September marking the start of a prolonged set of reductions reaching 225bp through end-2025.
- Others see cuts later this year as merely precautionary, with resurgent inflation / post-election policy risk set to curtail the easing cycle, potentially with a stop-start pace.
- Most analysts expect some modest adjustments to the July Statement, and primarily in the opening paragraphs with regard to the characterization of inflation / employment, and the development in the balance of risks to Fed achieving its dual mandate.
- However, there are a few analysts that see changes to the forward rate guidance to various degrees that would more clearly signal an intention to cut in September: these include Citi, Deutsche, Goldman, JPMorgan, TD, UBS, UniCredit.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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