MNI Fed Preview - Jun 2024: See You In September

We've just published our preview of the June FOMC meeting (PDF here):

• The FOMC will ensure a full year of the Fed funds rate remaining at 5.25-5.50% when it holds steady at the June 11-12 meeting, but focus remains firmly on what they signal for potential easing later this year.
• The new Dot Plot is likely to show a shift in the Fed funds median to 2 cuts in 2024, versus 3 in the prior two editions, alongside a nudge higher in the inflation forecasts. There are increasing risks of a shift to just 1 cut after May's strong payroll gains, particularly if next Wednesday’s CPI data comes in on the strong side.
• But most FOMC members are likely to retain optimism that rates can be cut twice by year-end, especially given recent indications that monetary tightening may finally be helping slow economic activity with a long lag.
• While Powell may well rule out July’s meeting for a cut, we think most FOMC participants will regard the September 18th decision as “live” given the large sequence of data in the interim. That would of course depend on CPI data cooperating sequentially, beginning with May’s report backing up April’s arguably “confidence”-building data.
• Note to readers: MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday June 10