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(H1) Fragile Outlook

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Curve Lower, Flatter as Yields Reverse Off Cycle Highs

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MNI FX Pi: EUR Positioning Eased to Multi-Month Low Pre-ECB

Full Article Here:

MNIFXPi0211.pdf

Friday's CFTC CoT update shows speculators built MXN and trimmed GBP positions in the latest week of data.

MXN saw the most sizeable change, with markets adding a net of 8k contracts, representing a 6.3 percentage point swing higher in the net long. The adjustments could be reflecting the continued baking-in of expectations that Biden will win the Presidency at this week's election. Nonetheless, the net position is still well short of the 52w high when taken as a % of open interest.

GBP sentiment moved in the opposite direction, with GBP now at a near 7k net short as speculators trimmed positions by close to 5k contracts. Brexit deadlines are looming, with November 15th still seen as the date by which an agreement needs to be reached between EU/UK negotiators to avoid a disruptive end to the transition period at end-2020.

The EUR long was trimmed by a further 10k contracts, pulling the net position further from the 52w high to hit a new multi-month low. The position squaring came ahead of Thursday's ECB rate decision, which saw the governing council point to December for further policy 'recalibration' and stimulus.

Both NZD and CHF net positions remain close to their 52w highs at 17.3% and 29.4% of open interest respectively.

Change in Net Positioning in October 30th CFTC report:

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com