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MNI: GERMAN DATA: Industrial Production (Jun 2019)...>

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MNI: GERMAN DATA: Industrial Production (Jun 2019) Preview - 07:00 BST
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- Bloomberg Consensus: -0.5% m/m, -3.1% y/y; MNI Median: -0.4% m/m, -3.0% y/y
- Previous (May): 0.3% m/m, -3.7% y/y
- German industrial production increased by a meagre 0.3% m/m in May...
- ... and June's data will probably not show a turn for the better
- Indeed, markets are looking for a 0.5% monthly decline in production... 
- ... this would leave average Q2 output down by 1.6% compared to Q1 (when it
increased by 0.4% q/q)
- Moreover, forward-looking indicators bode poorly for H2 2019
- Despite a 2.5% m/m uptick in June, German factory orders fell by 1.0% q/q over
Q2 as a whole
- And they likely have further to fall amid the challenging & uncertain global
backdrop...
- ...with key risks inc. the flaring US-China trade war, slower global growth,
the lingering threat of US auto tariffs, and the growing risk of a hard Brexit

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