MNI Gilt Week Ahead - Mar 8 2021: Bailey, GDP, gilt operations

• Last week the focus was on the Budget which has generally been very well received, with the exception of the government's recommendation that nurses receive a 1% pay rise. Unions are generally calling for a 12.5% pay rise and the optics of the government not rewarding NHS workers after their efforts through the pandemic are fuelling criticism from the Labour party. How the government reacts this week will be closely watched. Also making the headlines will be the return of schools today in the first step on the roadmap of unlocking the current lockdown measures.
• In terms of other events this week, BoE Governor Bailey will speak today at 10:00GMT at the Resolution Foundation in an event entitled "The economic outlook". Hélène Rey, professor at the London Business School, will also speak at the event before a Q&A with the session due to finish around 11:00GMT. The virtual event is free to sign up to - there is a link in the PDF. The event will give Bailey the chance to react to the Budget ahead of next week's MPC meeting. BoE Chief Economist Haldane is the only other MPC member scheduled to make a public appearance this week. He is due to appear in conversation with Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta tomorrow afternoon.
• The Friday data release of monthly GDP for January and its constituent parts will be the last major data release ahead of next week's MPC meeting and will give a much better idea of the impact of the current lockdown on the economy.
• Last week's Budget saw Covid-19 support continuing longer than expected, with tapers of measures also more generous than many had expected. This saw the DMO announce that gilt supply for the FY21/22 will be almost GBP50bln more than expected at GBP297.7bln (against the median estimate in our survey of GBP249.3bln). Today will see the DMO hold its quarterly consultations with investors and GEMMs (the a linke to the agenda is available in the PDF) ahead of releasing its gilt operations calendar on Friday at 7:30GMT. We discuss the gilts that we expect to be issued between April and June on page 4 of the MNI Budget Review.

See the link below for the full document including auction previews for the week ahead, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar:

GiltWeekAhead08032021.pdf