MNI Global Morning Briefing

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - No Miraculous Monday

     As is the case on a Monday, you're tired and missing the weekend that just

went too quickly. The calendar is the same, although the UK Parliament returns

from Easter recess and slowly make their way back into routine. 

     Germany lead the way

     No surprise but at 0600GMT, Germany get us underway with wholesale prices

data for March. February saw a fairly unimpressive m/m growth of -0.3% and y/y

growth of 1.2%. 

     The only other European release for today is the Bank of France's retail

trade data at some point in the day for March. The prior q/q figure contracted

by 1.5%. 

     US try to help calendar in the afternoon

     Starting off at 1230GMT is the double release of the Empire State

Manufacturing Survey and Retail Sales in the US. The index figure for Empire

Manufacturing previously stood at 22.5 for March signalling activity continuing

to expand and at a faster clip than in February, with the reading of 22.5

representing a nine point increase.

     US retail sales have fallen for the last three months in a row with 7 of

the 13 major retail categories showing m/m decreases in February. Total retail

sales stood at -0.1% and therefore it is likely that analysts will expect some

pick up in March. 

     Next up is Business Inventories month on month growth at 1400GMT. Business

Inventories in January matched December with growth of 0.6% and thus February's

figures may be interesting to see. 

     The National Association for Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index for

February showed US consumers are fairly positive about the market in relation to

houses for the next 6 months with an index value of 70. March's index value will

be released at 1400GMT. 

     China's quadruple release ends Monday

     Early in the morning (0200GMT) is China's quadruple release of its

Fixed-Asset Investment, GDP, Industrial Output and Retail Sales. 

     Fixed-asset investment y/y is expected to show a slightly slower growth

rate for March after growth in February of 7.9% declining to 7.6%. GDP for China

on a y/y basis is expected to remain unchanged for Q1 at 6.6%. 

     Industrial Output for March is also expected by analysts to contract after

growth in February of 7.2% y/y to expected growth in March of 6.0%. Contrary to

three out of four of the releases, China's retail sales may show a positive

sign. Y/Y growth of 9.7% in February is expected to spike up further to 10.0% in

March. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com