MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday's three key releases include the flash estimate of

Q4 German GDP, expected at 0700GMT, Euro Area GDP at 1000GMT and US January

retail sales at 1330GMT.

     The German GDP fell 0.2% in Q3, therefore there would need to see growth in

Q4 to avoid a technical recession. The MNI median pencils in growth of 0.1% in

Q4. However, MNI analysis does note that the risks appear to the downside after

weak official data from which the GDP reading comes.

     Of course the outcome in Germany will dictate what happens in the Euro Area

and their flash estimate of Q4 GDP at 1000GMT. GDP growth in Q4 of 0.2% is

pencilled in after 0.2% growth in Q3.

     Retail sales are forecast to hold steady in December after a 0.2% gain in

November that masked solid underlying strength. Not seasonally adjusted industry

motor vehicle sales rose further in December, while AAA reported that gasoline

prices fell further in mid-December from one month earlier. Retail sales are

expected to decline by 0.1% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.2% gain in

November due to weak gasoline station sales. Consumption started of strong in

October, by waned later in the quarter.

     Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks at

1600GMT in Newark.

     At 1700GMT is Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olssen delivering the

Government's annual address in Oslo.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com