Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday's data is set to highlight concerns facing the German economy, but confirm the stable outlook for the Eurozone as a whole, at least in Q3. The US labour market data will again be a focus point, highlighting productivity changes in non-farm payrolls.
German IP still struggling (0700 GMT)
German industrial production looks set to take another hit, with consensus forecasting a drop of -2.9% for October y/y, accelerating from -1.0% y/y in September. Industrial production in Germany has been volatile this year, hitting a record high of 27.5% y/y in 2021 and trending downwards since, as it wrestled with the base effects from 2020. With manufacturing orders plunging -6.9% m/m in the latest October data, supply shortages of input goods and raw goods remain highly concerning for German industry.
French Current Account / Foreign Trade (0745 GMT)
France’s trade deficit is expected to have grown in October to -E6.90bln from -E6.78bln in September.
German ZEW Current Conditions Index / Current Expectations Index (1000 GMT)
The German sentiment indices are some of the first for December, both pointing towards contractions as Germany finds itself amidst a surge of covid cases. The expectations reading is set to reduce to 25.4 for December, compared to 31.7 in November. This is in line with the current situations reading which also highlight investors faltering, forecasted to drop to 5.7 in December compared to 12.5 in the previous month. Forecasts reflect inflationary pressures with CPI running at 5.2% y/y (6.0% HICP) in November and an economy hampered by supply bottlenecks currently in a state of partial lockdowns.
Eurozone Labour Data (1000 GMT)
Eurozone employment rose 0.9% q/q for September 2021 and is forecasted to remain steady at 0.9% q/q for today’s data release. Annual employment is predicted to dampen from 2.0% y/y to 1.6% for Q3.
Eurozone Quarterly GDP and National Accounts (1000 GMT)
The GDP growth estimate for the Eurozone is projected to come in at 2.2% for Q3, bolstered by consumer’s service-sector spending. This remains unchanged from October and November’s numbers; however, downside risks should not be underplayed amidst supply chain disruptions and the fourth wave of coronavirus.
US Non-farm Productivity Dampened (final) (1330 GMT)
Analysts project non-farm productivity to remain low in the final Q3 reading, coming in at -4.9%, a tick higher than the 40-year low reading of -5.0% in November’s report as output growth was dampened and hours worked jumped. Unit labour costs are forecasted to remain in line with preliminary readings of 8.3% q/q for Q3, reflecting pay hikes and productivity drops as labour shortages continue to hamper the US economy.
US Trade Balance to Dampen from All-time High (1330 GMT)
The US trade deficit is expected to contract somewhat in October, to USD 66.8bln, down from September’s record of USD 80.9bln which saw exports shrink by 3%. Following this week’s data releases, next week’s policy decision sees the Fed pushing fast-forward on their stimulus tapering in order to hike rates by Spring 2022 to get a handle on inflation.
There are no key policymaker speeches scheduled for today.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.