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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The main data events to look out for on Thursday include EZ retail trade and EZ unemployment rate, both released at 1000GMT. In the US, the release of initial jobless claims will be watched closely at 1330GMT.
EZ unemployment seen unchanged
The euro area jobless rate is forecast to remain at December's level of 8.3% in January. This would mark the third successive reading at this level. The jobless rate rose only gradually since the start of pandemic as many countries continue their generous job support schemes. Already available state level data is in line with market forecasts. The ILO unemployment in rate in Germany remained at 4.6% in January.
EZ retail sales forecast to drop
Retail sales are expected to decline by 1.5% in February following January's 2.0% uptick. Sales dropped to -5.7% in November when several European countries tightened their restrictions and many shops had to close. December sales rebounded to 2.0% as restrictions were eased shortly before Christmas in several parts of Europe. However, infection rates rose in January and restrictions got tightened once more which led to the closure of non-essential businesses. Moreover, sale periods have been shifted in some countries, leading to further disruptions in the data. Already available state level data suggests a downside risk. German retail sales dropped by 4.5% in January, in contrast to markets looking for a small uptick, while French consumer spending came in worse than expected as well.
Source: Eurostat
US jobless claims expected to edge higher
U.S. jobless claims filed through February 27 are likely to have ticked up to 795,000 from 730,000 through February 20, according to Bloomberg. Analysts say initial claims could increase in the coming weeks as workers impacted by severe winter storms in the South apply for government aid.
The events calendar remains quiet on Thursday with the only highlight being Fed's Jerome Powell speaking at a summit.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.