MNI Global Week Ahead - Fed, BoE, Scandi, SNB and EM Decisions

WEDNESDAY - FED DECISION

The FOMC will hold rates at its September meeting, while maintaining its tightening bias. Despite recent progress on inflation, which will see core PCE forecasts revised down for the first time since 2020, we expect most of the FOMC’s median expectations to be largely unchanged in the latest set of quarterly projections. That includes the median rate “dots” indicating one further hike by end-2023, and 100bp of cuts in 2024, as most participants will remain cautious of signalling that the hiking cycle is over. Both of these are a very close call though, with risks that the 2023-24 dots shift a notch lower. The interplay between the inflation forecasts and implied 2024 cuts in the Fed funds rate projections will be a key market focus of the new projections and of the press conference.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY - BRAZIL, INDONESIA, TURKEY, SOUTH AFRICA AND PHILIPPINES RATE DECISIONS

In emerging markets, Brazil central bank should cut the Selic rate by 50bp for a second consecutive meeting to 12.75% before Bank Indonesia is widely expected to keep rates steady at 5.75%, where they have remained since the last hike in January. In Turkey, consensus is shifting toward further substantial tightening from the CBRT, with some analysts predicting a hike of as large as 500bp, after President Erdogan recently stated his support for tight monetary policy to bring down inflation, pivoting from his prior unorthodox stance. The SARB may extend the pause in interest-rate action as inflation cools faster than expected while South Africa's fiscal outlook deteriorates. Latest rhetoric from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor point to a continued hold next week at 6.25%.

THURSDAY - RIKSBANK, NORGES BANK AND SNB DECISIONS

In Scandinavia, both the Riksbank and Norges Bank are expected to raise rates by 25bp, with future policy guidance the main interest for markets. In Norway, movements in inflation, FX and economic growth have generally been in line with Norges Bank forecasts, but strong inflation in June means the policy path is likely to be notched higher. In Sweden, the August inflation print still saw CPIF ex-energy inflation above the Riksbank forecast, and the weak SEK should mean the Riksbank keeps the door open for another hike in November, in spite of weakening activity data. The SNB is also expected to raise rates 25bp to 2.00%, which could be the last hike in the cycle given alleviating short term price pressures. However, given medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain elevated above target, the SNB are likely to retain guidance that future tightening may be required.

THURSDAY - BANK OF ENGLAND DECISION

The BOE will meet this week with most sellside analysts expecting a final 25bp hike to 5.50% to be announced on Thursday (a scenario around 70% priced in by markets at present). There will also be focus on the forward guidance with the softening of the language in August expected by many to be followed up at this meeting with a stronger conviction that we are at / very close to the peak for Bank Rate. Private sector wage growth is showing initial signs of peaking but is still far too high while other labour market data and GDP data indicate the economy is slowing. Ahead of the decision we are due to receive the August inflation print (published Wednesday morning but the MPC will receive on Monday). Headline inflation is likely to tick up, partly due to higher fuel prices (an early consensus looks for a rise to 7.1%Y/Y from 6.8%Y/Y), while core CPI is expected by an early consensus to fall a tenth to 6.8%Y/Y.

FRIDAY - BANK OF JAPAN DECISION

The BoJ will issue its latest monetary policy decision on Friday. The typical release window opens at 11:30 Tokyo/03:30 London, although there is no fixed time for the release. Bloomberg’s BoJ sources attempted to clarify the intention of BoJ Governor Ueda’s recent comments, which were taken hawkishly by market participants. The sources noted that most of what Ueda said was “consistent with his routine remarks of late. Furthermore, they believe the overall comments indicate very little change in how the board will need to assess both upside and downside risks before adjusting the bank’s policy.” A follow up tweak to BoJ policy settings isn’t expected at this meeting, although markets remained attuned to the potential for another step before year end, particularly in the wake of Ueda’s comments and despite the best efforts of the BBG sources.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
18/09/2023	0900/1100			EU	ECB's de Guindos Speaks at Event
18/09/2023	1215/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
18/09/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
18/09/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
18/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
18/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
18/09/2023	2000/1600	**		US	TICS
19/09/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
19/09/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
19/09/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
19/09/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
19/09/2023	1230/1430			EU	ECB's Elderson Speaks at Banking Union Conference
19/09/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
19/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
19/09/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
19/09/2023	1745/1345			CA	BOC Deputy Kozicki speech in Regina SK.
20/09/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
20/09/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
20/09/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
20/09/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
20/09/2023	0700/0900			EU	ECB's Panetta Speaks at Workshop
20/09/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
20/09/2023	0900/1100			EU	ECB's Schnabel Speaks at Event
20/09/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
20/09/2023	1230/1430			EU	ECB's Elderson Speaks at Springtji Forum
20/09/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
20/09/2023	1730/1330			CA	BOC minutes from last rate meeting
20/09/2023	1800/1400	***		US	FOMC Statement
21/09/2023	2245/0045			EU	ECB's Lane Speaks at NYU
21/09/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
21/09/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
21/09/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Retail Sales
21/09/2023	0730/0930	***		CH	SNB Policy Rate
21/09/2023	0730/0930	**		SE	Riksbank Interest Rate
21/09/2023	0800/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
21/09/2023	1100/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
21/09/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
21/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
21/09/2023	1230/0830	*		US	Current Account Balance
21/09/2023	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
21/09/2023	1400/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
21/09/2023	1400/1600			EU	ECB's Lagarde Lectures in Marseille
21/09/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
21/09/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
22/09/2023	2300/0900	***		AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
22/09/2023	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
22/09/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
22/09/2023	0200/1100	***		JP	BOJ policy announcement
22/09/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
22/09/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	GDP (f)
22/09/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
22/09/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/09/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
22/09/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/09/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Services PMI flash
22/09/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
22/09/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
22/09/2023	1100/1300			EU	ECB's de Guindos Speaks at Event
22/09/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
22/09/2023	1250/0850			US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
22/09/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
22/09/2023	1345/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
22/09/2023	1700/1300			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly