MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - FOMC Mins, Riksbank, JP CPI and EM CBs
This week is headlined by the FOMC minutes, the last Riksbank decision of the year, Japan CPI and CB decisions in emerging markets.
TUESDAY - FOMC MINUTES
The Minutes to the November FOMC meeting out Tuesday will be scrutinized for further insight into how participants viewed the impact of tighter financial conditions on the outlook, particularly given that they were added to the Statement as a factor that was "likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation". There will as always be attention paid to mentions of participants' criteria to hike further, or alternatively, to be satisfied that rates are sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to target. While softer-than-expected employment and inflation data since the meeting have firmed market expectations that the Fed will pause for a third consecutive meeting in December, the minutes may strike a more balanced tone, reminding that the fight against inflation is not yet over and the Committee retains a bias towards further tightening.
THURSDAY - RIKSBANK DECISION
The Riksbank’s final policy decision of the year is expected to be a very close call. The MNI Markets team believes a 25bps hike to 4.25% with no changes to the pace of QT is the most likely outcome. Such a move would continue to support the weak SEK and ensure underlying inflation components continue their downward trajectory. The current Bloomberg consensus also looks for a hike, but a sizeable minority expect the Riksbank to stay on hold. Analysts arguing for a hold have cited progress on inflation, a stronger SEK vs the Riksbank's September forecasts and a continued deterioration of economic activity as the rationale behind their call.
TUESDAY / THURSDAY - EM DECISIONS
Hungary: The NBH is expected to extend the easing cycle next week with another 75bp base rate cut. The decision follows criticism from economic development minister Nagy, who said that NBH rates policy "seriously damages" the economy, and that policymakers are behind the curve on rates and inflation.
Turkey: Further tightening from the CBRT is expected on Thursday, with the benchmark one-week repo rate broadly expected to be raised by 250bps to 37.50% given that inflation is still running above 60%.
South Africa: As well as the release of South Africa CPI (Wed), the SARB are unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged at 8.25% on Thursday. Given the tight vote split in September, further dissenting votes will be monitored closely. This will be the first meeting since Finance Minister Godongwana delivered his Medium Term Budget Policy Statement.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY - NOVEMBER FLASH PMIs
Next week sees flash PMIs in Europe (Germany, France, UK and Eurozone) and the US. German services re-entered contractionary territory in October, while the manufacturing sector remained extremely weak. Similarly weak prints in France have dragged down the Eurozone-wide figures in the past months. UK PMIs have fared slightly better than European counterparts, but remain below 50. In the US, a composite reading above 50 would mark the 10th consecutive month that the index has been in expansionary territory.
FRIDAY - JAPAN CPI
Japan national CPI for October is forecasted to print at 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.0% prior). Core CPI (CPI ex-fresh food) is seen at 3.0% (vs 2.8% prior) while the consensus for core CPI ex-energy is 4.1% (vs 4.2% prior). The prints come as markets continue to speculate over when Japan will exit NIRP and make further tweaks to yield curve control. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said on Friday the BOJ will continue patiently with easy policy to support economic activity and spur wage growth. Ueda told lawmakers the achievement of its 2% price target is still uncertain and the bank is focused on whether the wage-price cycle strengthens as this was key to the inflation outlook.
Da | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
20/11/2023 | 0500/0600 | ![]() | EU | ECB's Lane participates in CEBRA panel | |
20/11/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | DE | PPI |
20/11/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | EU | Construction Production |
20/11/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
20/11/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
20/11/2023 | 1800/1300 | ** | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
20/11/2023 | 1845/1845 | ![]() | UK | BOE's Bailey Henry Plumb Lecture | |
21/11/2023 | 0700/0700 | *** | ![]() | UK | Public Sector Finances |
21/11/2023 | 0745/0845 | * | ![]() | FR | Retail Sales |
21/11/2023 | 1000/1000 | * | ![]() | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
21/11/2023 | 1015/1015 | ![]() | UK | Treasury Select Hearing on MPR | |
21/11/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | CA | CPI |
21/11/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
21/11/2023 | 1355/0855 | ** | ![]() | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
21/11/2023 | 1500/1000 | *** | ![]() | US | NAR existing home sales |
21/11/2023 | 1600/1700 | ![]() | EU | ECB's Lagarde discusses Inflation and democracy | |
21/11/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
21/11/2023 | 1630/1130 | ** | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
21/11/2023 | 1715/1815 | ![]() | EU | ECB's Schnabel at Wurzburg Policy Lecture | |
21/11/2023 | 1800/1300 | ** | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
21/11/2023 | 1900/1400 | *** | ![]() | US | FOMC Rate Decision |
21/11/2023 | 2100/1600 | ![]() | CA | Canada fall economic/fiscal statement (release time is approximate) | |
22/11/2023 | 0001/0001 | * | ![]() | UK | XpertHR pay deals for whole economy |
22/11/2023 | 1100/1100 | ** | ![]() | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
22/11/2023 | 1200/0700 | ** | ![]() | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
22/11/2023 | 1230/1230 | ![]() | UK | UK Autumn Statement | |
22/11/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
22/11/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | US | Jobless Claims |
22/11/2023 | 1410/1510 | ![]() | EU | ECB's Elderson keynote speech on stability in the Green Transition | |
22/11/2023 | 1500/1600 | ** | ![]() | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
22/11/2023 | 1500/1000 | ** | ![]() | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
22/11/2023 | 1530/1030 | ** | ![]() | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
22/11/2023 | 1630/1130 | ![]() | CA | BOC Governor Tiff Macklem speech/press conference | |
22/11/2023 | 1700/1200 | ** | ![]() | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
23/11/2023 | 2200/0900 | *** | ![]() | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
23/11/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | NO | Norway GDP |
23/11/2023 | 0745/0845 | ** | ![]() | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
23/11/2023 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
23/11/2023 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
23/11/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** | ![]() | SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
23/11/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
23/11/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
23/11/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
23/11/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
23/11/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
23/11/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
23/11/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
23/11/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
23/11/2023 | 1330/0830 | * | ![]() | CA | Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises |
23/11/2023 | 1530/1530 | ![]() | UK | DMO publish agenda for quarterly meetings | |
24/11/2023 | 2330/0830 | *** | ![]() | JP | CPI |
24/11/2023 | 0001/0001 | ** | ![]() | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
24/11/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** | ![]() | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
24/11/2023 | 0700/0800 | *** | ![]() | DE | GDP (f) |
24/11/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | SE | PPI |
24/11/2023 | 0800/0900 | ** | ![]() | ES | PPI |
24/11/2023 | 0900/1000 | *** | ![]() | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
24/11/2023 | 1000/1100 | ![]() | EU | ECB's Lagarde participates in "Europe in the Future" event | |
24/11/2023 | 1300/1400 | ![]() | EU | ECB's De Guindos remarks and Q&A | |
24/11/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | CA | Retail Trade |
24/11/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
24/11/2023 | 1400/1500 | ** | ![]() | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
24/11/2023 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) |
24/11/2023 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
24/11/2023 | 1600/1100 | ![]() | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
24/11/2023 | 1800/1300 | ** | ![]() | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |