MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - UK Jobs, US CPI, ECB and CBR

TUESDAY - UK LABOUR MARKET

UK labour market data is due for release on Tuesday at 7:00BST and will be one of the final data releases ahead of the next MPC policy decision which is due Thursday 21 September. One of the main concerns for the MPC at present the moment is the continued persistence in wage pressures. The data to June saw private sector regular wages rise from 7.9%Y/Y to 8.2%Y/Y while total inc. bonus rose from 7.4%3m/YoY to 7.9%3m/YoY. The whole economy data surprised even more to the upside as the NHS wage deal added around estimating 0.5ppt to the headline index and which will persist over the next two monthly releases. The early consensus looks for unchanged whole economy wage growth in the July report. Outside of wage growth, the rest of the labour market report showed some reduced tightness, with the unemployment rate has rising from 4.0% to 4.2%, the highest since October 2021 and from a trough of 3.5% in August 2022, and the early consensus expects this to tick up further to 4.3% in the July report. Survey data has also showed to some reductions in tightness in labour market data, but the MPC will want to see private sector wage growth to tick lower still before contemplating a pause in rate hikes, in our view. In late Friday trading, markets were pricing just over a 75% probability of a 25bp hike in September.

WEDNESDAY - US INFLATION

US CPI for August lands on Wednesday, with renewed energy increases seen driving a strong increase in headline inflation (Bloomberg consensus currently 0.6% M/M). Further, base effects are expected to push Y/Y inflation higher for the second month running (3.6% Y/Y, +0.4pps) now that the particularly favourable base effects of Q1 and Q2 are passed. Core CPI will as always carry more weight, and here consensus sees a third 0.2% M/M after two soft 0.16% M/M readings. We suspect expectations are towards a ‘higher’ 0.2 on an unrounded basis considering airfares are unlikely to see a third month sliding -8%. Core non-housing services will again no doubt receive plenty of attention; they bounced from 0.00% to 0.19% M/M in July and have averaged a subdued 0.14% M/M since April.

THURSDAY - ECB DECISION

The ECB's next monetary policy decision is released on Thursday, with analysts and market pricing split on whether the Governing Council will deliver a 25bp rate hike. MNI's latest ECB Exclusive sources (see here) piece pointed to the decision remaining in the balance, with hawks pushing for what could be their last data-based window to hike, but others arguing for a pause to take stock of the impact past tightening will have on the already-slowing eurozone economy. Whatever the decision, President Lagarde's press conference and a fresh set of staff macroeconomic projections will be closely scrutinised for future policy signals.

FRIDAY - BANK OF RUSSIA RATE DECISION

Consensus looks for the Bank of Russia to keep rates unchanged at 12.00%, however there remains significant risk of a rate hike of as much as 100bps at the September meeting as the Bank look to juggle a recovery in the inflation rate, curtailed export revenues and domestic financial fragility via the FX channel.

Having bottomed out at 2.31% in April, CPI Y/Y is expected to have risen for a fourth consecutive month in August, as a depreciating currency, sanctions pressure and limited exporter FX revenues make for a fragile backdrop. To add to domestic financial stability concerns, the bank have been forced to accelerate their daily FX sales plans in order to meet mid-month Eurobond repayment requirements, adding more pressure to reserves.

As such, even absent a rate hike, the bank are expected to retain a hawkish bias - mirroring their mid-August statement in which they pledged to further tighten policy should the uptick in inflation persist.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
09/09/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CPI
09/09/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	Producer Price Index
11/09/2023	0600/0800	*		NO	CPI Norway
11/09/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Industrial Production
11/09/2023	-	***		CN	Money Supply
11/09/2023	-	***		CN	New Loans
11/09/2023	-	***		CN	Social Financing
11/09/2023	1500/1100	**		US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
11/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
11/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
11/09/2023	1700/1300	***		US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
12/09/2023	2300/0000			UK	BOE's Mann to Speak in Canada
12/09/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
12/09/2023	0600/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
12/09/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (f)
12/09/2023	0900/1000	*		UK	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
12/09/2023	0905/1105	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
12/09/2023	0905/1105	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
12/09/2023	1000/0600	**		US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
12/09/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
12/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
12/09/2023	1600/1200	***		US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
12/09/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
13/09/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	UK Monthly GDP
13/09/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Index of Services
13/09/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Index of Production
13/09/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Trade Balance
13/09/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Output in the Construction Industry
13/09/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Industrial Production
13/09/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
13/09/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
13/09/2023	-			EU	EC State of the Union Address
13/09/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Household debt-to-income
13/09/2023	1230/0830	***		US	CPI
13/09/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
13/09/2023	1700/1300	***		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond
13/09/2023	1800/1400	**		US	Treasury Budget
14/09/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	Labor Force Survey
14/09/2023	0600/0800	***		SE	Inflation Report
14/09/2023	1215/1415	***		EU	ECB Deposit Rate
14/09/2023	1215/1415	***		EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
14/09/2023	1215/1415	***		EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
14/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
14/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
14/09/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Wholesale Trade
14/09/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
14/09/2023	1230/0830	***		US	PPI
14/09/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
14/09/2023	1415/1615			EU	ECB's Lagarde speaks at Podcast
14/09/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
15/09/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
15/09/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Retail Sales
15/09/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Industrial Output
15/09/2023	0200/1000	**		CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
15/09/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (f)
15/09/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
15/09/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey
15/09/2023	0900/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
15/09/2023	0900/1100			EU	Labour Force Survey (Q2)
15/09/2023	0945/1145			EU	ECB's Lagarde & Panetta speak in Spain
15/09/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
15/09/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Import/Export Price Index
15/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/09/2023	1300/0900	*		CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/09/2023	1315/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
15/09/2023	1400/1000	***		US	University of Michigan Sentiment Index (p)
15/09/2023	1400/1000	**		US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers