Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Developed Markets
TUESDAY: UK Labour Market Data
In the last labour market report, the key private sector regular wages number of 5.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to the end of March printed in line with previews that we had read and 0.1ppt below the BOE's forecast. The upcoming release will give us a first look at how the increase in the National Living Wage impacted the data. The April CPI data in our view represented some upside risks to this print with higher-than-expected price rises in hotels, cafes, restaurants and food potentially being driven by higher labour costs. We have not heard recently from MPC members given the upcoming UK election (there are no public statements from BOE officials until after the election). However, we note that in the last services PMI report there was much less explicitly commentary on input price rises not being passed through than previously. If this is also being reflected in the Bank’s conversations with the Agents, the employment data will once again take on extra significance. However, with a cut in June looking extremely unlikely it will be expectations of meetings further ahead that could be more impacted by these data.
WEDNESDAY: US CPI
Early analyst consensus is that US CPI downshifted in May to 0.1% M/M headline (0.3% April; Y/Y consensus 3.4%, unch from April) with core steady at 0.3% M/M (the latter moderating to 3.5%Y/Y vs 3.6% prior) on an unrounded basis but with many looking for a "soft" figure unrounded (i.e. below April's 0.29% M/M). Services will be the key to the core measure, with some analysts seeing a deceleration in key categories such as auto insurance and housing, while slower energy price gains are set to keep a lid on the headline measure. Due to the timing of the release just hours before the Federal Reserve releases its June meeting decision and communications, the release could have an impact on the FOMC's messaging and forecasts.
WEDNESDAY: Fed Decision
The FOMC will ensure a full year of the Fed funds rate remaining at 5.25-5.50% when it holds steady at the June 11-12 meeting, but focus remains firmly on what they signal for potential easing later this year. The new Dot Plot is likely to show a shift in the Fed funds median to 2 cuts in 2024, versus 3 in the prior two editions, alongside a nudge higher in the inflation forecasts. There are increasing risks of a shift to just 1 cut after May's strong employment report, particularly if next Wednesday’s CPI data comes in on the strong side. But most FOMC members are likely to retain optimism that rates can be cut at least twice by year-end, especially given some recent indications that monetary tightening may finally be helping slow economic activity with a long lag.
FRIDAY: BoJ Decision
Unlike some BoJ watchers who anticipate a rate hike at next week’s monetary policy meeting on June 13-14 to counter recent JPY depreciation, we do not expect any change, i.e., we expect the policy rate to remain at 0-0.1%. While Governor Ueda has stated that the Bank would react if underlying inflation was impacted by JPY depreciation, we doubt that the Bank will make such a judgment at the next meeting. However, we do expect the BoJ to likely reduce JGB purchases, which are currently around ¥6 trillion per month, similar to the levels before the Bank ended yield curve control in March.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY: BoT Decision
The Bank of Thailand meets on June 12 and we expect it to leave rates at 2.5%, where they have been since September 2023, as there has not been any development that would drive a dovish shift since the April meeting. The MPC has blamed low inflation on government subsidies for some time and so that is unlikely to force a change, and Q1 GDP was stronger than expected. At the last meeting, the BoT noted significant uncertainties around exports and the impact of government policies. Two MPC members voted for a rate cut in February and April and it would be dovish if their number grows.
THURSDAY: BCRP Decision
Much softer than expected CPI data for May has seen Peru’s annual rate of inflation converge to the BCRP’s mid-point of the target range at 2%. Data should bolster the likelihood of the central bank continuing with its 25bp easing pace, reducing the reference rate to 5.50% next Thursday.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 10/06/2024 | 2301/0001 | ** |  | UK | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 10/06/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** |  | JP | GDP (r) |
| 10/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | * |  | IT | Industrial Production |
| 10/06/2024 | - | | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 10/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 10/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 10/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | *** | | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 11/06/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 11/06/2024 | 1000/0600 | ** | | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 11/06/2024 | 1100/1300 |  | EU | ECB's Lane chat at Banking and Payments Federation Conference | |
| 11/06/2024 | - | *** |  | CN | Money Supply |
| 11/06/2024 | - | *** | | CN | New Loans |
| 11/06/2024 | - | *** | | CN | Social Financing |
| 11/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Building Permits |
| 11/06/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 11/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Services Revenues |
| 11/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 11/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 11/06/2024 | 1645/1845 | | EU | ECB's Elderson at Annual Banking Supervision Conference | |
| 11/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 12/06/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | | CN | CPI |
| 12/06/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 12/06/2024 | 0600/0700 | ** | | UK | UK Monthly GDP |
| 12/06/2024 | 0600/0700 | ** | | UK | Trade Balance |
| 12/06/2024 | 0600/0700 | ** | | UK | Index of Services |
| 12/06/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Index of Production |
| 12/06/2024 | 0600/0700 | ** | | UK | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 12/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | DE | HICP (f) |
| 12/06/2024 | 0900/1000 | * | | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 12/06/2024 | 0930/1130 | | EU | ECB's Schnabel at German Finance Committee | |
| 12/06/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 12/06/2024 | - | | UK | Sky News- Election Leaders Event | |
| 12/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | CPI |
| 12/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Intl Investment Position |
| 12/06/2024 | 1300/1500 | | EU | ECB's De Guindos at MNI Connect Event | |
| 12/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 12/06/2024 | 1600/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 12/06/2024 | 1800/1400 | ** | | US | Treasury Budget |
| 12/06/2024 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement |
| 12/06/2024 | 1915/1515 | | CA | BOC Governor Macklem speaks at panel in Montreal. | |
| 13/06/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** |  | AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 13/06/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (f) |
| 13/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Industrial Production |
| 13/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 13/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 13/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | PPI |
| 13/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Household debt-to-income |
| 13/06/2024 | 1335/0935 | | CA | BOC Deputy Kozicki speaks on balance sheet policies. | |
| 13/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 13/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | *** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 14/06/2024 | 0200/1100 | *** | | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 14/06/2024 | 0430/1330 | ** | | JP | Industrial Production |
| 14/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** | | SE | Inflation Report |
| 14/06/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** |  | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14/06/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 14/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | | EU | Trade Balance |
| 14/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | | EU | ECB's Lane participates at Dubrovnik Economic Conference | |
| 14/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | | EU | ECB's De Guindos at Carlos V European Prize Ceremony | |
| 14/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 14/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 14/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 14/06/2024 | 1330/1530 | | EU | ECB's Schnabel in European Fiscal Board Meeting | |
| 14/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 14/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 14/06/2024 | 1730/1930 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde Speech at Dubrovnik Economic Conference | |
| 14/06/2024 | 1800/1400 | | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 14/06/2024 | 2300/1900 | | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.