MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: US Inflation Data In Focus

The BOC and the RBNZ July meetings, alongside US CPI, will be in the spotlight for the upcoming week.

MONDAY

No data of note.

TUESDAY

Germany Final HICP / ZEW Survey: The harmonized June data is expected to confirm a 0.4% month-on-month increase in German inflation, with a year-on-year acceleration of 0.5 percentage points to reach 6.8%. In June, core CPI also accelerated to 5.8% year-on-year, rising by 0.4 percentage points compared to May. The increase in core inflation was primarily driven by services, which saw a 0.8 percentage point strengthening to reach 5.3% year-on-year, while goods CPI decelerated by 0.4 percentage points to 7.3% year-on-year. Destatis noted that the increase in services inflation for the month was partly influenced by base effects from the 9-euro transport ticket in summer 2022.

Consensus is looking for around a two-point slide in Germany’s July ZEW expectations to -10.6, undoing the June increase and signalling again stagnant growth outlooks. Last month’s ZEW survey of financial market experts saw current conditions dive 21.7 points to -56.5, the lowest since January.

UK Labour Report due Tuesday is expected to should mixed wages data although both the ex-bonus and total average wages data are expected to remain elevated close to – or just above – 7%. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.8%, while the rolling 3m employment gain is expected to slow to 89,000 from 250,000.

WEDNESDAY

RBNZ Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to maintain its official cash rate at 5.5% during the July meeting. Currently, there is only around a 15% chance of a 25 basis point hike priced in. This decision would break a 12-meeting streak of consecutive rate hikes, as the RBNZ signalled in May that it plans to start cutting rates in Q3 2024.

Spain Final HICP: The final June figures are expected to confirm Spain's significant deceleration in headline inflation, which cooled by 1.3 percentage points to 1.6% year-on-year, falling below the ECB's 2% target for the first time since March 2021. Spanish core CPI only saw a minor relief in June, easing by 0.2 percentage points to 5.9% year-on-year. Stubbornly high services inflation likely played a role, particularly as the tourism season kicked off.

US CPI: Consensus estimates suggest a 0.3% month-on-month increase in US CPI for June, an acceleration from the 0.1% recorded in May. Headline CPI is anticipated to decrease by 0.9 percentage points to reach 3.1% year-on-year, the lowest level since March 2021. Core CPI is expected to moderate by a more moderate 0.3 percentage points to 5.0% year-on-year.

BOC Rate Decision: A 25bp hike is pencilled in for the Bank of Canada’s July meeting, yet the decision is likely to be a close call, with markets pricing only around 15bp. The case for a final 25 basis point hike to 5.00% from the BOC is bolstered by strong domestic demand and a strengthening housing market.

THURSDAY

UK Monthly GDP is expected to have declined markedly in May, falling 0.4% as the effects of the additional bank holiday for the coronation weighed. The decline was likely led by the services sector, with analysts looking for a m/m dip of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in April

France Final HICP: The final print is likely to confirm a slight easing of French flash HICP in June to 5.3% year-on-year from 6.0% year-on-year in May. Services CPI is expected to cool marginally by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% year-on-year, while manufactured goods are projected to rise by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3% year-on-year. INSEE highlighted that the delayed start of summer manufacturing sales this year contributed to these trends. The final release of core CPI is expected to show only a slight softening.

Eurozone Industrial Production: Current production is supported by cooling energy prices and further easing in supply chains, but the ongoing decline in demand remains a key concern, as indicated by contractionary PMI data. After volatile Irish data partially contributed to April upticks of 1.0% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, the underlying May data is likely to show subdued growth. France surprised on the upside as strike action eased, while German data disappointed with a small contraction.

US PPI: Consensus estimates suggest a 0.2 percentage point increase in US producer prices on a monthly basis for June, while the headline annualized figure is expected to soften by 0.7 percentage points to 0.4% year-on-year. This implies the lowest factory-gate inflation figure since September 2020. This downward trend has been foreshadowed by recent PMI data, with MNI's Chicago PMI's Prices Paid Index falling to a more than three-year low last month.

FRIDAY

US Prelim Michigan Sentiment: The preliminary Michigan survey for July is expected to show an improvement of around one point from the June reading of 64.6, which would be the strongest reading since February. This follows a mixed decline in inflation expectations in June, where one-year expectations cooled considerably, while five-year expectations declined only marginally.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
09/07/2023	0730/0830			UK	BOE Bailey Panels Rencontres Economiques
10/07/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CPI
10/07/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	Producer Price Index
10/07/2023	0600/0800	*		NO	CPI Norway
10/07/2023	-	***		CN	Money Supply
10/07/2023	-	***		CN	New Loans
10/07/2023	-	***		CN	Social Financing
10/07/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Building Permits
10/07/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Wholesale Trade
10/07/2023	1400/1000			US	Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
10/07/2023	1500/1100	**		US	NY Fed survey of consumer expectations
10/07/2023	1500/1100			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
10/07/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
10/07/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
10/07/2023	1600/1200			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
10/07/2023	1900/1500	*		US	Consumer Credit
10/07/2023	1900/2000			UK	BOE Bailey Speech at Financial & Professional Services Dinner
11/07/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
11/07/2023	0600/0800	***		DE	HICP (f)
11/07/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
11/07/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Industrial Production
11/07/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
11/07/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
11/07/2023	1000/0600	**		US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
11/07/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
11/07/2023	1400/1000	**		US	IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
11/07/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
11/07/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
11/07/2023	1700/1300	***		US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
12/07/2023	0200/1400	***		NZ	RBNZ official cash rate decision
12/07/2023	0600/0700			UK	BOE FPC Summary and Record
12/07/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (f)
12/07/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
12/07/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
12/07/2023	1230/0830	***		US	CPI
12/07/2023	1230/0830			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
12/07/2023	1345/0945			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
12/07/2023	1345/1545			EU	ECB Lane panels at NBER conference.
12/07/2023	1400/1000	***		CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
12/07/2023	1400/1000			CA	Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
12/07/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
12/07/2023	1500/1100			CA	Bank of Canada Governor press conference
12/07/2023	1600/1200	***		US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
12/07/2023	1700/1300			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
12/07/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
12/07/2023	1800/1400			US	Fed Beige Book
12/07/2023	2000/1600			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
13/07/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	UK Monthly GDP
13/07/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Index of Services
13/07/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Index of Production
13/07/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Trade Balance
13/07/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Output in the Construction Industry
13/07/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (f)
13/07/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Industrial Production
13/07/2023	-	***		CN	Trade
13/07/2023	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta in Eurogroup Meeting
13/07/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
13/07/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
13/07/2023	1230/0830	***		US	PPI
13/07/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
13/07/2023	1700/1300	***		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond
13/07/2023	1800/1400	**		US	Treasury Budget
13/07/2023	2245/1845			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
14/07/2023	0600/0800	***		SE	Inflation Report
14/07/2023	0900/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
14/07/2023	-			EU	ECB de Guindos in Ecofin Meeting
14/07/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
14/07/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Import/Export Price Index
14/07/2023	1300/0900	*		CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
14/07/2023	1400/1000	**		US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers