MNI Global Week Ahead - US NFPs and EZ Inflation In Focus
Developed Markets
TUESDAY - Eurozone Flash September Inflation
The Eurozone-wide flash inflation print is due on Tuesday, but we will have received national-level data corresponding to 80% of the overall basket by Monday. Monday's calendar includes data from Germany (state-level data at 0900BST before the national print at 1300BST) and Italy.
Ahead of the lower-than-expected French and Spanish flash HICP data on Friday, Sep 27, analysts expected Eurozone headline HICP to moderate to 1.9% Y/Y (vs 2.2% prior) and core to 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.8% prior). As such, there are already downside risks to these estimates, which will factor into the market reaction. Fuel-related base effects are expected to pull the energy component - and therefore headline inflation – lower in September. Additionally. several temporary factors are expected to have dragged on services inflation (one example being Olympic-related effects in France). As such, this should put heightened focus on the ECB’s seasonally adjusted data, which will strip out at least some of the noise.
The French and Spanish inflation data, alongside weak flash PMIs and dovish ECB source reporting earlier in the week, have driven a sizeable dovish repricing in ECB implied rates. There is now an 80% implied probability of a 25bp cut in October, up from ~20% at the start of the week. With multiple sell-side outlets now officially calling for an October cut, markets will be particularly sensitive to any upside surprises in next week's inflation data, particularly with downside risks already embedded into consensus.
FRIDAY - US Labour Market Report
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for September dominates next week’s US macro calendar, although labor releases leading up to it and ISM Services on Thursday can also drive significant volatility in markets in the interim. Core PCE inflation is running a touch below target on the four-month average that Fed Governor Waller flagged and supercore only fractionally higher, leaving a low bar low for continued front-loaded cuts from the Fed on any even marginally dovish surprises in labor data. We expect another month of particular prominence for the unemployment rate, which is currently expected to print another 4.2% in the still early days for the Bloomberg survey, after 4.22% in August and 4.25% in July. This would be a plateauing after what had been some swift increases earlier in the year that have triggered the Sahm Rule. The median FOMC participant shunted their u/e rate forecast up by 0.4pps to 4.4% for 4Q24 in last week’s SEP but interestingly don’t then see any further deterioration with 4.4% in 4Q25 (revised up 0.2pps). Any upside surprises this month can very quickly see this end-2025 forecast come into view and see markets even more firmly question the rate path indicated in the dot plot. Fed Funds futures are currently pricing in slightly more than 50/50 odds of a second 50bp cut at the Nov 7 decision but note that the October payrolls report will also be released before then.
Emerging Markets
MONDAY - BanRep Decision (Colombia)
The September monetary policy decision will be a close call as the committee weighs stepping up the easing pace, but on balance most analysts expect it to deliver another 50bp cut in the overnight rate to 10.25%. While falling inflation and the Fed’s bold start to its easing cycle provide the central bank with some room to deliver a larger cut, on-going fiscal risks and concerns about the currency may prompt a more cautious approach. The vote is likely to be split once again, as Finance Minister Bonilla continues to argue for a faster pace of easing.
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
The NBP will hold interest rates unchanged next week, as a temporary increase in headline inflation rate into the year-end ties the hands of the Monetary Policy Council. However, Governor Glapinski has pivoted away from his earlier hawkish rhetoric, while a growing number of Polish central bankers have been flagging potential for a serious rate-cut debate as soon as in March 2025.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
30/09/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
30/09/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
30/09/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
30/09/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
30/09/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
30/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | GDP Second Estimate |
30/09/2024 | 0600/0700 | * | GB | Quarterly current account balance |
30/09/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
30/09/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
30/09/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
30/09/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
30/09/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
30/09/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
30/09/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
30/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
30/09/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
30/09/2024 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
30/09/2024 | 1300/1500 | EU | ECB's Lagarde at ECON hearing | |
30/09/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
30/09/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
30/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
30/09/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
30/09/2024 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | USDA GrainStock - NASS |
30/09/2024 | 1755/1355 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
30/09/2024 | 2010/2110 | GB | BOE's Greene panellist on 'Perspectives on global MonPol' | |
01/10/2024 | 2300/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
01/10/2024 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
01/10/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
01/10/2024 | 2350/0850 | *** | JP | Tankan |
01/10/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
01/10/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
01/10/2024 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
01/10/2024 | 0630/0830 | ** | CH | Retail Sales |
01/10/2024 | 0700/0900 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 5th Joint BoC - ECB - NY FED Conference | |
01/10/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
01/10/2024 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
01/10/2024 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
01/10/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
01/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
01/10/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
01/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
01/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
01/10/2024 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
01/10/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
01/10/2024 | 1300/1500 | DE | MNI Connect Video Conference on German & Eurozone Economic & Policy Developments | |
01/10/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
01/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
01/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
01/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
01/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
01/10/2024 | 1400/1500 | GB | BOE's Pill Speech at Q3 Confederation of British Industry Economic Growth Board | |
01/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
01/10/2024 | 1500/1100 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
01/10/2024 | 1510/1110 | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
01/10/2024 | 1530/1730 | EU | ECB's Schnabel lecture at Joint BoC - ECB - NY FED Conference | |
01/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
01/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
01/10/2024 | 2215/1815 | US | Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins | |
02/10/2024 | 0715/0915 | EU | ECB's De Guindos speech at SUERF and Latvijas Bankas conference | |
02/10/2024 | 0730/0930 | EU | ECB's De Guindos in panel discussion on financial architecture | |
02/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
02/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
02/10/2024 | 0930/1130 | EU | ECB's Lane chairing policy panel at Joint BoC - ECB - NY FED Conference | |
02/10/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
02/10/2024 | 1200/1400 | EU | ECB's Elderson participates in European Affairs Webinar | |
02/10/2024 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
02/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
02/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
02/10/2024 | 1500/1100 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
02/10/2024 | 1615/1215 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
02/10/2024 | 1645/1845 | EU | ECB's Schnabel Walter Eucken Lecture | |
03/10/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
03/10/2024 | 0630/0830 | *** | CH | CPI |
03/10/2024 | 0700/1700 | AU | MNI Connect Video Conference on Australian Economic & Policy Developments | |
03/10/2024 | 0700/0300 | * | TR | Turkey CPI |
03/10/2024 | 0830/0930 | GB | BOE's Decision Maker Panel | |
03/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | PPI |
03/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
03/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
03/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
03/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
03/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
03/10/2024 | 1440/1040 | US | Fed's Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari | |
04/10/2024 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Lending Finance Details |
04/10/2024 | 0545/0745 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
04/10/2024 | 0645/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production |
04/10/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production |
04/10/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
04/10/2024 | 0755/0855 | GB | BOE's Pill Speech at Chartered Accounts conference | |
04/10/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
04/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
04/10/2024 | 1000/1200 | EU | ECB's De Guindos remarks at Radio Intereconomia anniversary | |
04/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
04/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
04/10/2024 | 1310/1510 | EU | ECB's Elderson Speech at Change in Leadership event | |
04/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | CA | Ivey PMI |