MNI INSIGHT: UK's May Prepares To Confront Party Brexiteers

--PM Looks To Offer Concessions To EU, But Keep Her Leavers In Check

     LONDON (MNI) - UK Prime Minister Theresa May is stealing herself for a

crunch time in her premiership by scheduling a major EU speech only a couple of

weeks before confronting the pro-Brexit Tory rank-and-file at the Conservative

Party's annual conference, MNI understands.

     A tactical Remain voter in last year's referendum on EU membership, May is

aiming to serve up enough in her Florence speech tomorrow to unlock the Brussels

negotiations and move them on to trade talks. At the same time, her hope is that

she will manage to face down the Brexit hard-liners in Cabinet -- whose views

are closer to those of the wider party -- and avoid the resignation of Foreign

Secretary Boris Johnson and a potential leadership challenge.

     Johnson's characteristic demarche at the weekend was designed both to

constrain May's room for manoeuvre on the Brexit process and to reinforce his

credentials as the de facto leader of the wider Conservative Party. But it is

significant that he has not placed a veto on either a transitional period after

the March 2019 EU departure date or continuing payments into Brussels coffers

during the transition. He does, though, want both to be as limited as possible.

     Perhaps of greater importance is the long-term trading arrangements with

the EU and the degree to which the UK is prepared to accept ongoing EU ties to

win single market access. It could be that May will be brave on near-term

concessions to Brussels -- a fudged but time-limited transition arrangement

retaining much of the EU superstructure, including a chunk of UK cash during it

-- but tough on what for Brexiteers is the big prize: a post-transition clean

break with the EU. Or as May might have it, a "bespoke" deal.

     It leaves May -- egged on by Chancellor Philip Hammond and other Remainers

in her Cabinet -- probably still gauging how many near-term concessions she can

put on the table in her speech tomorrow and how clearly she can commit her

government to them. Strikingly, MNI reports a senior EU source reminding the UK

government that whatever May says in tomorrow's speech, Brussels won't take it

seriously until they see the ink dry on official UK negotiating papers. In other

words, will May still be around to deliver what she says?

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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