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MNI INTERVIEW: Energy Prices Pose Risk For US Mfg Growth--ISM

WASHINGTON (MNI)

Institute for Supply Management manufacturing chair Tim Fiore told MNI Tuesday rising energy prices are worrisome for U.S. manufacturers, but he added for now the Ukraine crisis will likely have only modest ripples for the industry.

"I'm definitely concerned about that," Fiore said, when asked about oil prices rising above USD100 a barrel. "Eventually, that is the thing that really puts the brakes on, when prices get to a certain level because they go into everything."

"At USD 100 it starts to get difficult," said Fiore, hopeful that the prices will incentivize developers to enter the market over the medium-term. But the ISM chief expressed confidence that the prices paid measure will continue to steadily fall in coming months and that supply chains will continue to improve in coming months.

"We've got some headwinds here," the ISM chief said, noting that the U.S. manufacturing sector breezed through Omicron much better than previously expected.

"We're going to be back down on that path towards towards the mid to high 60s," he said about the prices paid measure that declined 0.5ppts to 75.6. "Omicron put a big bump in the road for us," he said. "Aluminum is clearly also an issue since there is a lot that comes out of Russia, but I think we're gonna be back on that path towards 68 on the prices index."

STRONG DEMAND

The ISM manufacturing index rose to 58.6 in February amid a rise in new orders and production, but the backlog of orders sub-index also rose by the most since early 2011. The report showed solid demand with new orders rising 3.8ppts to 61.7, but activity remains constrained by an inadequate amount of supply.

"It was a super strong demand month in February. Backlogs saw the highest rate of change in 11 years and near record highs in terms of the quantity of companies reporting increasing backlogs and new orders over 60 up on those four points," he said. "This is a really good report."

Fiore also said demand is unlikely to slow even if consumers shift heavily from goods to services in coming months. "The inventory's pipelines under pent-up demand are still there."

"There's at least three to six months of pent-up demand once demand kind of softens here and that backlog really represents a lot of stuff that people want," he said. "We average 34 to 36 months in manufacturing expansions. I think we're going to see one of the longest expansions we've seen in 20 years."

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | evan.ryser@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | evan.ryser@marketnews.com

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