MNI: Italy Centre-Right On Rise, High Chance of 2018 Vote Win

--Victory in Sicily Foresees Possible National Win In 2018

--Coalition Among Parties Key to Beat Democrats, 5 Star Movement

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - As of now, the chances are high that Italy's centre-right

could win next year's general election, thanks to the formation of a wide

coalition that appears able to defeat both the ruling Democratic party and the

populist 5 Star Movement, senior Italian officials have told Market News.

     Recent polls and surveys suggest that an alliance between former premier

Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia group, the populist Lega party and the former

fascists of Fratelli d'Italia, could pick up 40% of the vote Spring, when

Italian voters go to the ballot boxes to elect a new government.

     And it's not just mere hypothesis or forecast; recent results in local

elections underline the trend. 

     On Monday the centre-right coalition were confirmed as the winners of

Sicily's regional elections, picking up 40% of local votes. The 5-Star Movement,

who had boasted of an electoral stronghold in Sicily, crumbled to 35% of votes

while the Democrats came third with just 19%.

     The centre-right victory in Sicily, which acted as a testing ground of the

new alliance, puts Berlusconi's party back into the political game and is seen

as a possible prediction of what will happen on a larger, national scale next

year.

     Maurizio Gasparri, Forza Italia spokesman and vice president of the Senate,

argued that "joining forces is the key to victory, thanks to Berlusconi who

promoted cohesion among different centre-right parties". 

     This was directly opposed to the Democrats, who were being torn apart by

internal contradictions and "abstract debates" that were distancing them from

voters, he said..

     "Showing Italians a clear, common position and a united front like we do is

the winning strategy to adopt at the next general elections," said Gasparri.

     The centre-right has yet to define its overall program and political goals,

however, but so far it has been the first to grasp the importance of teaming up

and create a solid electoral coalition. The 5 Star Movement are not seeking any

alliances, while the Democrats, currently headed by former premier Matteo Renzi,

are tackling an internal crisis that makes forming a centre-left coalition a

distant dream.

     "We are facing a new rise of the centre-right and it is most likely that

the alliance between Berlusconi, Salvini and Fratelli d'Italia leader, Giorgia

Meloni, will win the next elections, or at the very least secure an impressive

vote at the detriment of both the Democrats and the 5 Stars Movement," said

Andrea Ungari, professor of history and theory of political parties at Rome's

LUISS University.

     According to Ungari, a possible centre-right victory should not be seen as

a surprise next year, as "all Europe is moving in that direction. Nationalist

and centre-right parties are taking foot across the union, including in France

and Germany, and I believe Italy's next vote will see a resurrection of

Berlusconi's party," he argued.

     If the centre-right triumph in Italy, Lega and Forza Italia will likely be

the major stakeholders, so the next prime minister will depend on who gets the

most votes between the two allies, said Ungari. 

     Berlusconi cannot run for office due to a 2013 tax fraud conviction, but

his appeal as "vote catcher" remains significant and he can still place his own

men at the helm of power.

     In the weekend's Sicily elections, where Forza Italia has always fared

relatively well, Berlusconi's party got 16.4% of votes while Salvini just 6%,

but it was the first time the "northern" Lega group had fielded candidates in

the southern region.

     On a national basis, however, the two parties are neck-and-neck at roughly

14-15%, with Lega currently having a narrow advantage. Support for Lega has been

steadily increasing in recent months and, according to recent studies, Italy's

new voting system, mostly proportional, might help Lega surpass Forza Italia and

win the centre-right leadership.

     Meanwhile, the weakened Democrats prepare for a heated party meeting in

coming days to discuss the defeat in Sicily, the latest in a series of losses

increasing the number of dissidents questioning Renzi's leadership and, by

extension, his candidature as prime minister.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$I$$$,M$X$$$,MC$$$$,MI$$$$,MGX$$$]