Free Trial

MNI MARKET ANALYSIS: US Payrolls Preview - Strength Seen After Omicron Disruption

Executive Summary:

  • February nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by +420k according to the Bloomberg survey median with dispersion of views quite evenly spread.
  • The strength is seen coming from a rebound after Omicron-related disruption in January, even though January was surprisingly strong. Distortions dropping out from annual adjustments should make the report easier to digest.
  • We see potential asymmetric upside risks to March pricing of hikes but more balanced risks to the broader rate path, all ahead of CPI on Mar 10.
  • See the full report below with previews from 10 sell-side analysts.
Primary Dealer NFP Estimates:
Primary DealerEstimatePrimary DealerEstimate
Morgan Stanley+730KAmherst Pierpoint+700K
NatWest+650KSociete Generale+555K
Jefferies+550KCiti+510K
Goldman Sachs+500KJ.P.Morgan+500K
Nomura+500KBarclays+450K
Daiwa+450KScotiabank+450K
UBS+425KBMO+420K
BNP Paribas+400KHSBC+400K
RBC+380KBank of America+375K
Wells Fargo+375KMizuho+300K
TD Securities+300KCredit Suisse+250K
Deutsche Bank+200K--
Dealer Median+450KBBG Whisper+393K

FOR FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

USNFPMar2022Preview.pdf

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.