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MNI NBH Preview - July 2023: Hawkishness to Prevail?

Analysts are undecided over whether the NBH will keep rates unchanged at 7% or cut by an additional 25bps.

HomepageEmerging Market NewsEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewCEMEA Bank- PreviewHungarian National Bank - Preview

Executive Summary:

  • The National Bank of Hungary is expected act in-line with its hawkish messaging and keep rates unchanged at 7% in July, though substantial risk of a 25bp easing move is noted.
  • Despite headline inflation coming in below expectations in June, Deputy Governor Virag said the central bank will not overreact to a single positive data-point - though he also stated that a rate cut will be considered this month.
  • Among sell-side, expectations are tilted toward a further 25bp rate cut. According to a Bloomberg survey, 16 analysts foresee a 25bp cut whereas 9 are expecting an unchanged decision.

See our full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:

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Executive Summary:

  • The National Bank of Hungary is expected act in-line with its hawkish messaging and keep rates unchanged at 7% in July, though substantial risk of a 25bp easing move is noted.
  • Despite headline inflation coming in below expectations in June, Deputy Governor Virag said the central bank will not overreact to a single positive data-point - though he also stated that a rate cut will be considered this month.
  • Among sell-side, expectations are tilted toward a further 25bp rate cut. According to a Bloomberg survey, 16 analysts foresee a 25bp cut whereas 9 are expecting an unchanged decision.

See our full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:

Keep reading...Show less