Free Trial
GILT TECHS

(U2) Trades Through Key Short-Term Resistance

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS

(U2) Bull Flag

SCHATZ TECHS

(U2) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

ASIA FX

Resilient Start To The Week

BOBL TECHS

(U2) Challenges Key Short-Term Resistance

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

The NBP is likely to keep rates unchanged this week at 0.1%, sticking with its dovish tone and vocalised pressure on PLN appreciation. Although the MPC may point to potential space for 10bp of easing in 1Q21, the base case remains for rates to stay unchanged out to ~2022.

MNI Point of View: NBP to Hold at 0.1%, Dovish Tone & PLN Jawboning to Resume •

  • The NBP is likely to keep rates unchanged this week at 0.1%, sticking with its dovish tone and vocalised pressure on PLN appreciation. Although the MPC may point to potential space for 10bp of easing in 1Q21, the base case remains for rates to stay unchanged out to ~2022.
  • A steady flow of better than expected high-frequency data since the Jan meeting should also support no changes to the NBP's current posturing, with the -2.8% FY20 GDP print (vs -3.5% Nov forecast) highlighting Poland's outperformance in the CEE region. However, this may be tempered slightly by recent uncertainty surrounding the vaccine rollout - raising the likelihood that the NBP will remain on the dovish side to maintain positive momentum using QE, rather than rate cuts.
  • On the intervention front, the NBP will likely reiterate its willingness to continue FX interventions to "strengthen the impact of monetary policy easing". However, we expect there to be more talk than action, provided EUR/PLN continues to self-regulate around the 4.50-4.48 zone. Nevertheless, a decisive move through these levels will most likely elicit an NBP response in the near-term. Over the medium-term, stronger PLN fundamentals are expected to place appreciation pressure on the currency and likely be allowed to run below 4.48 in 2H21, once the vaccination rollout has moved closer to its conclusion and the recovery narrative is more deeply ensconced

For full preview please click on the following link:

NBP 03.02.21.pdf

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.