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MNI Norges Bank Preview - November No More Than a Placeholder

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Higher COVID caseload adding pressure, but November no more than a placeholder

With no new rate path projections, economic forecasts or accompanying press conference, the Norges Bank are likely to follow the rate path dictated in their September meeting and keep policy unchanged Thursday.

As is the case with central banks from Australia to the US and the Eurozone, the Norges Bank are dealing with an economy still subject to COVID containment measures, restrained economic activity and an uncertain outlook for key trade partners. Nonetheless, there is little threat of the financial market fragmentation or rising instability that would prompt action at this month's Norges Bank meeting.

Most of Western Europe is suffering under the weight of an increasing COVID case count and declining ICU capacity. Norway is no exception. Nonetheless, the uptick in Norway's positive case count is, as of the beginning of November, far shallower and less pronounced against global peers.

While this is far from good news, it suggests the Norwegian economy could be more well placed for any post-lockdown recovery relative to its international counterparts. We expect these thoughts to be fed into the December Monetary Policy Report, at which we receive new economic forecasts and rate path projections. So, while the Bank will certainly take note of the recent rise in COVID cases and retrenchment of global growth, a cautious, albeit not activist, approach will likely be maintained.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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