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MNI Norges Bank Review - August 2023: One Step Closer to Peak Rates

Executive Summary:

  • Raised rates by 25bps to 4.00%, returning to single hike pace
  • Bank signal peak rate not yet reached, flagging September as the next most likely hike
  • Currency again gets a mention, but backdrop has eased over the quarter
Full PDF including summary of sell-side views here:

MNINBRevAug23.pdf

The Bank’s decision to raise rates by 25bps was widely expected, and the board looked to contain uncertainty about the future rate path by signalling more tightening was likely to follow at the September meeting. These decisions were already projected via the Bank’s June rate path projections and, as such, left little market response across either the NOK currency or front-end FRAs.

There is less unanimity among forecasts for the peak of the tightening cycle. The majority of sell-side analysts see a 25bps step in September as marking the peak rate of 4.25%, however a growing minority see a risk of more rate hikes beyond and a peak policy rate at 4.50%.

Central Bank ReviewHomepageNorges - ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
Central Bank ReviewHomepageNorges - ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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