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MNI Norges Bank Review - May 2024: Hawkish Tilt

Executive Summary:

  • The Norges Bank held policy rates at 4.50%, and the statement also contained a hawkish addition
  • The monetary policy assessment noted that while price inflation is slowing, it remains “markedly above target”
  • Wolden Bache did not provide more specific guidance on the timing of the first rate cut
Full review including summary of sell-side views here:

MNINBRevMay24.pdf

When taken alongside the upside risks to wage growth forecasts following the recent labour union settlements and the weaker-than-projected krone, it underscores the Norges Bank’s continued hawkish messaging. In the press conference, Governor Wolden Bache did not provide more specific guidance on the timing of the first rate cut.

She repeatedly noted that such signalling was not possible in the absence of an updated set of projections, which are due on June 20 alongside the updated monetary policy report. Additionally, she stated that the NOK weakness since the March decision did not appear due to “Norway-specific” factors.

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