MNI PINCH UPDATE: Having priced in a 42.4%.......>

US: MNI PINCH UPDATE: Having priced in a 42.4% probability of a 25bp fed funds

cut for the December meeting just a week ago, OIS-implied policy rate

expectations are now turning more neutral. The economic data release calendar is

still patchy following the US government shutdown, which will make it difficult

for markets to update expectations for monetary policy. That said, recent

developments favour a further steepening of the forward curve. While yesterday's

retail sales data came in weaker than expected, wage growth for January

(published on Wednesday) was robust and CPI surprised slightly higher. More

significantly from a broader risk sentiment perspective, Washington and Beijing

appear to be tentatively pulling back from an all-out trade war, and

domestically Congress has passed the spending bill which will avert a fresh

government shutdown. 

Please see: https://emedia.marketnews.com/MNI_PINCH_Update_15-02-2019.pdf