MNI POLITICAL RISK - 7 Days To Shutdown, No Progress On GOP CR

Executive Summary:

• One week out from a government shutdown and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) ‘honeymoon period’ appears over. The Speaker’s plan to move individual FY24 spending bills has hit the skids and he is yet to articulate a clear plan to avert a shutdown. Johnson will likely have to release a Continuing Resolution this weekend to provide sufficient time for a tentatively scheduled vote on Tuesday.
• US Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, David Satterfield, told reporters yesterday that the United States does not believe that Israel-Gaza war expanding into Lebanon is inevitable.
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen yesterday began two-days of meeting with her Chinese counterpart ahead of the highly anticipated bilat between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.
• Democrats were delivered a surprise, but not unexpected, setback yesterday when Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) confirmed he would not seek re-election. With the 2024 Senate map already overwhelmingly in favour of Republicans, Manchin's decision makes tight races in Ohio and Montana critical for Democrats.
• Another survey has given a pessimistic forecast of President Biden’s chances in 2024 swing states, but a Democrat overperformance at this week's off-year elections appear to support White House claims that the underlying political environment remains favourable for Democrats.
• Poll of the Day: Ohio Democrat incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is, “tied with or leading all of his Republican challengers..."

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MNIPOLRISKUSDaily101123.pdf