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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Betting Markets Turn Against UK PM

Executive Summary

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under significant pressure this morning after a clip showing former No.10 Downing Street press spokeswoman Allegra Stratton answering mock questions regarding a Christmas party alleged to have taken place during lockdown in 2020 was leaked late last night.
  • The government has previously denied the party at No.10 Downing St took place, and this morning has failed to send any ministers or government representatives to participate in the media round.
  • Betting markets have shifted notably in the past 12 hours, with the implied probability of Johnson remaining in office beyond the next general election (slated for 2024) falling from 50% to 40%. The implied probability of Johnson ceasing to be PM in 2022 has spiked from 26% to 34%.
Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Betting Markets Turning Against UK PM.pdf

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Year of PM Johnson Leaving Office, %

Source: Betdata.io, Betfair


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