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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under significant pressure this morning after a clip showing former No.10 Downing Street press spokeswoman Allegra Stratton answering mock questions regarding a Christmas party alleged to have taken place during lockdown in 2020 was leaked late last night.
- The government has previously denied the party at No.10 Downing St took place, and this morning has failed to send any ministers or government representatives to participate in the media round.
- Betting markets have shifted notably in the past 12 hours, with the implied probability of Johnson remaining in office beyond the next general election (slated for 2024) falling from 50% to 40%. The implied probability of Johnson ceasing to be PM in 2022 has spiked from 26% to 34%.
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Betting Markets Turning Against UK PM.pdf
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Year of PM Johnson Leaving Office, %
Source: Betdata.io, Betfair
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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