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The Spanish autonomous community of Catalonia goes to the polls on Sunday 14 February in a regional vote where the whole of Spain may feel the repercussions of the result. The election, held in controversial circumstances, is being bitterly fought between parties advocating Catalonia become an independent nation state and those that support it remaining part of a federal Spain.

Main Takeaways:
  • Pro-independence parties seem likely to be in a situation where they win a majority of seats in the regional parliament, but do not win over 50% of the vote. This would complicate the pro-independence parties call for a legitimate referendum.
  • Even in the scenario the pro-independence parties win both a majority of seats and a majority of the vote, the prospect of the Spanish government in Madrid granting a legal referendum is vanishingly small. Catalonia remains an engine of Spanish growth, something Madrid cannot afford to lose any time soon.
  • Should the pro-independence parties win a majority there is no guarantee they go on to form a regional government. The leftist pro-independence ERC could end up in government with the pro-union PSC and the regionalist ECP in a broad coalition that crosses the independence divide but takes the region in a leftist policy direction.
Chart 1. Projection of Election Result Based on 3-10 Feb Polling, Seats

Source: ElectoPanel, SocioMetrica, Feedback, Democscopia y Servicios, KeyData, GESOP, Opiniometre, Hamalgama Metrica, Celeste-Tel, CIS, DYM, Sigma Dos, GAD3. N.b. Seats do not add up to 135 due to rounding.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Catalonia Election Preview.pdf

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-0981 | tom.lake@marketnews.com