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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker – Aug 5

by Tom Lake

Today's Major COVID-19 Headlines And Latest Data

  • Senior US cabinet officials to hold in-person talks with Taiwanese government to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic. The visit of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Agar to Taiwan, set to take place this week, is the first by a US cabinet member in six years. It has already sparked criticism from the Chinese foreign ministry, which said it was opposed to official interactions between US and Taiwanese officials.
  • The number of global fatalities crossed the 700,000 mark on August 4. The fatality totals from the US, Brazil, Mexico, the UK and India account for 55.3% of the global total. The overall mortality rate for the virus worldwide is 3.78 per 100 cases according to date from Johns Hopkins University, down from a peak of 7.18 per 100 on April 30.
  • Sweden's economy contracted 8.6% in Q220 according to flash estimates, a much smaller contraction than that experienced in the EU as a whole (-11.9%). Sweden did not enter a strict lockdown at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic unlike most other countries worldwide. Instead of an enforced lockdown the Swedish government relied on voluntary social distancing and recommendations to work from home and avoid public transport.
  • Global increase in cases (daily) – Yesterday: 1.4%. Seven-day average: 1.5%
  • Global increase in fatalities (daily) – Yesterday: 1.0%. Seven-day average: 0.8%
MNI INSIGHT: BOE May Put "Dark Scenario" In Stability Report - The Bank of England may outline thoughts on the economic impact of a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic on Thursday, but this "dark scenario" may only feature in its Financial Stability Report, distancing it from the rates decision revealed in the Monetary Policy report which would include an updated central forecast assuming a smooth return to normality. On MNI Policy Main Wire and email now - for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0530BST August 5. N.b. Each dot represents a single day's figures, data for past month

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