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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Governments At Risk Report Oct '21

The main story in this month's GRI is the significant decline in a number of country's scores, indicating a reduction of risk to governments in those nations. These have largely come about due to the passing of major elections. Even though some (Germany, Canada) do not have new governments or Cabinets officially in place, the stable direction of political travel in both means their 'Election Risks' scores are lowered markedly.

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Executive Summary

  • In this monthly Governments At Risk Report, MNI's Political Risk team use our proprietary Governments at Risk Index (GRI) to identify those governments in developed and emerging markets most at risk of collapse or ouster. The GRI – based on subjective assessments by our analysts – provides a reliable, timely, and quantifiable assessment of the risk of a government leaving office, which can often presage changes in policy that influence FI and FX markets.• Each country included in the GRI is assigned a score out of 40, with the highest scores indicating high risk of a change of government, while a low score indicates that the government is facing little prospect of leaving office in the near future.
  • The main story in this month's GRI is the significant decline in a number of country's scores, indicating a reduction of risk to governments in those nations. These have largely come about due to the passing of major elections. Even though some (Germany, Canada) do not have new governments or Cabinets officially in place, the stable direction of political travel in both means their 'Election Risks' scores are lowered markedly.
  • The largest increase in GRI score this month comes in South Africa, where municipal elections in November risk an uptick in political violence.
Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Governments At Risk Report Oct 2021.pdf

Chart 1. Overall GRI Scores, Out of 40

Source: MNI. 40 indicates highest risk, zero lowest risk.