Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
While there is understandably intense focus on the outcome of the US presidential election, which looks set to continue into the coming hours and days, one area where there does appear to be some more certainty in the race for a majority in the Senate. It appears at present as if the Republicans are on course to retain their majority in the Senate. With six races still to be decided at the time of writing, both the Republicans and the Democrats have 47 seats. In the election the Democrats flipped two Republican seats, with Mark Kelly taking Arizona's seat from Martha McSally, and former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper winning that state's seat from incumbent Republican Cory Gardner. The Republicans flipped one Democrat seat, with Tommy Tuberville taking Alabama from Doug Jones.
Of the remaining Senate seats to be called, Republican Dan Sullivan is almost certain to retain his Alaska seat, while Thom Tillis looks set to hold onto North Carolina's seat for the GOP after the most expensive Senate campaign in history up against Democrat Cal Cunningham. Holding onto these two seats would put the Republicans on 49, two short of an overall majority. This leaves Michigan, Georgia, Maine, and Georgia's special senate election to call. In Michigan, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters trails Republican John James by 2.290mn votes to 2.050mn, a margin of 51.8% to 46.4% with 78% of estimated votes reported. This looks good for James, but as is the case in the presidential vote, there could be big swings as urban centres, notably Wayne County (Detroit) reports. In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins, seen as an anti-Trump moderate, leads by 282,814 votes to Democrat Sara Gideon's 248,726 votes, a margin of 49.5% to 43.6% with 68% of the estimated votes reported.
Chart 1. Map of Senate Seats After 2020 Election (Those Yet To Officially Call Estimated By MNI)
Source: 270toWin, MNI States not in solid colours have not been formally called, instead they are shaded with colour of party MNI expects to win seat. Georgia special senate seat is a toss-up.
The remaining two seats are in Georgia. For the regular Georgia Senate seat, incumbent Republican David Perdue leads Democrat challenger Jon Ossoff by 2.380mn votes to 2.193mn, a margin of 50.8% to 46.9%, with 91% of estimated votes reported. In Georgia's special senate election, no candidate won an overall majority meaning that a run-off will be required on January 5 2021 between the two candidates finishing highest, Democrat Raphael Warnock, and incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler. With Collins and Perdue looking set to retain their seats, this would put the Republicans on 51 senate seats, eliminating the prospect of a 'blue wave', and along with it the likelihood of an immediate large fiscal stimulus package in the form of a Democrat COVID-19 aid bill,
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.